Forseeable forcast...AKA SHTF.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

OK, if we go way back into the SHTF archives some of you might recall I posted a link or two relating to this storm tracking stuff. I use the tools I used as a "squid" in my Navy days that aided us as a ship when transiting the world's oceans. NOAA is a useful site if you DIG INTO IT! It will give you wave heights, sea temps, water vapor loops high and low pressure regions and ALL THE SHIT THE NEWS DOES NOT GIVE THE PUBLIC! So they can make all the decisions FOR YOU, make you panic, run away, buy shit, the usual. Now having said this I am asking you PLEASE (note the date, I said please) look at the links I am giving and study the movements of the high (dark zones)and low pressure bands and how everything reacts to them. You will soon learn how to tell the weather channel to "fuck off" or you might know when to "over all hatch hoods and gun covers."

1. If a high pressure retreats a low will move in.
2. A high pressure is "normally" moved with a jet stream. You'll see it.
3. Highs are usually stronger than lows.
4. Never transit to the south of a hurricane when at sea, you will get sucked in. Remember the sunken container ship off the Bahamas last year?
5. Always transit to the North so you will get blown out (note the circulation pattern......)

PLease feel free to ask questions. I currently feel that Irma is going to peter out with this high pressure band pushing so hard coming in from the north west the last few days. It Knocked it down into Cuba to where it lost steam contradicting yesterday's prediction of "OH, it's going to be a CAT 5! when it hits Florida!" Fucked that one up.....

OK, having said all this we have family in Titusville, Orlando, Panama City, and friends in Tampa. Only Tampa and Titusville has left the state.
OH hey, we still have some members who are down there too! SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO what's up with them?
How about checking in if you can and have time just so we know you are GTG????????

OK here are two links, One is more east coast US the other is more atlantic for the oncoming storms that are coming across. Tell me your thoughts, my current is "wind and rain" and some power outages due to downed power lines and what nots. The fuckin media is killing me but I won't get into that.............I could see the major concern in the beginning but I have a tendency not to PANIC. I like to do the research myself before I trust the media. I make my moves based on my own experiences. My family learned to trust my instincts after Hurricane Brett in 99, they wanted to leave and I said NO, it's going to dogleg to the west. We boarded up, and stayed put and people left and they stuck on the highway in the middle of the storm. (Texas DPS learned a valuable lesson, open all lanes so EVERYONE can get out safely, by the way it worked this time with Harvey)So What happened in 99? It doglegged west and hit south of Corpus and all was well in the kingdom. I used the tools I was given, so far they still work. I think Florida might be just fine............except getting back into place. HEY, real economy booster though huh?


By the way, my daughter's life and my wife's family depends on it, and then again, you can't fix stupid.

WE'll talk about the other Nations vulnerabilities we have going on right now later..................I have a list.

[Stg1swret]

I concur. This storm is not what it is hyped to be. Watch the trailer that they aren't talking about good oldJose. The west coast of Florida is going to get pummeled, Storm surge will kill Tampa Bay. Jose isn't going to follow the original track, and is going to play hell with recovery efforts. The weather channel makes it money on getting ratings, not giving you real weather during a real weather event, more hype, more ad revenue. The more dangerous they can make it look, the more they make for ads. BWRR and I have seen plenty of nasty weather at sea, and known the power a storm can present. It gets ugly, and if you don't pay attention, it gets deadly real quick.
I hate to say it, but most of you land lubbers just don't know weather or how to interpret a weather map or forecast. Please learn it is a life saver.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

You might have notice how the "categories" have changed up and down all day long. If you'll also notice the weather picture they give you on the TV stations shows this giant swirling blob of red. Look at the WATER vapor loop and tell me what you see. I just heard about a 16 FOOT storm surge now on the west coast of FL.......................uhhhh. I'm not buying that one, hey can anybody else come up with more adjectives? It's nuclear now in Miami! Give me a fuckin break people, by the way, anybody checked up on NKO, Iran, China, Isis, Skeletor (Nancy pelosi ) ain't hearing shit about the real threats while we're most vulnerable.

I just talked to my "Surf Punk" bud in Orlando a little bit ago, he's boarded up and ready to go. I told him, "beans, bullets and band-aids" the storm is one thing, the worst is yet to come.......people. They all left and guess who's ready and waiting to pillage the village? The good thing is Rick Scott authorized open carry for all in the state. The bad thing is, who's the guy carrying in your neighborhood?

Years ago we discussed Katrina, great memories for Stormy and me (sarcasm) the truth is people suck, and some of us don't. I've seen enough but when you come home and see it in your own country.......yeah, just makes you sick inside. Fuck'em. So I made sure I reminded our friends and family.

So where's TX now, it's coming it won't take long. Houston is big and so is TX....I hope I'm wrong.

[Stg1swret]

The news only reports their threat of the day as they see it. At least Russian collusion has gone away. The water vapor loop tells me this storm will rapidly lose strength. !6 foot storm surge is not an option maybe half of that if it stalls, but the steering currents say that is not even in the realm of possibilities. When this all falls apart, they will talk about the storm that could have been. Did a typhoon in the S. China sea in 72 wasn't pleasant, and hurricane at sea and two in port, also no fun. If you know how to read a weather gauge, you know what is coming. Being you and I had no place to hide at sea, we've been there and know what to expect. A big drop in pressure means a strong storm,get on the correct side of it and your fine, if you are on the wrong side you take a pounding. Ignore the warnings and indicators and you die. It is a simple equation.
As for the categories, I kind of laughed at the graphics, wind does less damage then moving water. A three foot wave will kill you faster then 120 mph wind will.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Here's a good shot of Jose, nice little spinner hooking up to the WNW around PR. If this one gets more fuel it could do some damage as well. If I were steamin I'd stay well south of PR and DR, do a little diving in Cayman Brac, cut through the islands and make my way home behind it.

[Stg1swret]

Jose is definitely coming, it is a question of probable track, and I don't see the steering currents for the big hook they are calling for. Ther is also another probable forming off Africa which if it develops is about 2 weeks behind Jose. Its getting busy in the Atlantic.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

The news only reports their threat of the day as they see it. At least Russian collusion has gone away. The water vapor loop tells me this storm will rapidly lose strength. !6 foot storm surge is not an option maybe half of that if it stalls, but the steering currents say that is not even in the realm of possibilities. When this all falls apart, they will talk about the storm that could have been. Did a typhoon in the S. China sea in 72 wasn't pleasant, and hurricane at sea and two in port, also no fun. If you know how to read a weather gauge, you know what is coming. Being you and I had no place to hide at sea, we've been there and know what to expect. A big drop in pressure means a strong storm,get on the correct side of it and your fine, if you are on the wrong side you take a pounding. Ignore the warnings and indicators and you die. It is a simple equation.
As for the categories, I kind of laughed at the graphics, wind does less damage then moving water. A three foot wave will kill you faster then 120 mph wind will.

Oh, STG1 is right on all counts, this can be some fun shit, as the smell of vomit drifts throughout the passageways. Only the saltiest sea dogs remain on watch, we pulled doubles and them some cause the rest are down below pukin and in their racks. You "tack" your course in order to ride the waves as best you can. Yup, you and I could swap some sea stories. If you ever feel the need to come to TN and vacation We will accommodate ya, Jack Daniels is right down the road and we have many forms of entertainment for us retired squids, he, he.

[Stg1swret]

Sounds like a plan Senior Chief. I always kept a hammock for sleeping in "heavy weather". it was better then trying to strap yourself into a rack. During the typhoon, we had a whole 62 watch standers for almost 3 days. Passageways were awash with regurgitated food. Those without their "sea legs", cleaned up their own mess when things quieted down.
Nothing like walking on the bulkheads when you had to. Never spilled a drop of coffee either. Kind of miss that sometimes. Sure it was a bit dangerous, but you learned to live with it, and carry on. #5 to 40 degrees rolls became a challenge to time, along with diving into and rising out of a trough. Going up and down ladders , if you timed it right were a one step process.

[bacpacker]

Thanks for the links and info guys. Time for some study.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Sounds like a plan Senior Chief. I always kept a hammock for sleeping in "heavy weather". it was better then trying to strap yourself into a rack. During the typhoon, we had a whole 62 watch standers for almost 3 days. Passageways were awash with regurgitated food. Those without their "sea legs", cleaned up their own mess when things quieted down.
Nothing like walking on the bulkheads when you had to. Never spilled a drop of coffee either. Kind of miss that sometimes. Sure it was a bit dangerous, but you learned to live with it, and carry on. #5 to 40 degrees rolls became a challenge to time, along with diving into and rising out of a trough. Going up and down ladders , if you timed it right were a one step process.

You know what really pissed me off? taking a shower in those heavy seas.... I hated bouncing my naked ass off of that nasty ass rain locker. Sometimes shower shoes don't have the grip and you get folded up on your ass.... you get the picture. The navy shower is about 2.5 foot square. Sometimes they're not the cleanest in these conditions especially when the plumbing is gurgling up from the drain, it ain't purdy. Fun times! You bring back fond memories brother! Like doing the kapok jump in the Bosn's locker! Or the guy that slips in the vomit in the p-way and does the electric slide, it's all over, can't regain footing, ship keeps rockin and rolling and you keep getting covered in vomit.