Scenario planning

[bacpacker]

I've been giving this some thought the last few days. How do you folks go about planning your preps for various senario's? How do you try and rate the likely hood to rank them? I want to hopefully make sure I am covering all my bases. New ideas are always a good place to start.

As spread out as we all are, it might even be worthwhile listing some of you local senario's. Just might give someone else (me) something else to look at.

[Stg1swret]

I plan based on historical dat of events that have happened in my area- blizzard, hurricane, flood, etc. The event that has happened most often gets top priority.

[Sniper-T]

^
As he said, but I also add seasonality to the mix.

Right now my main concern is Blizzards/power outages.

In the summer Tornados/fires/power outages

[izzyscout21]

Right now, I'm planning for power outages and snow/ ice storms.

The rest of the year it will be tornados, tornados, oh, and more tornados.

[realist]

Ditto.

Obviously money enters into it also depending upon what you have to plan for. The nice thing is that you should have a basic load, food,water and shelter. The problem is when you have people like Sniper, you sometimes have extreme weather. Your living situation is also important, apartment vs house, rent vs own etc. Those that own can make all the modifications they want whereas the renters need to put their monies toward a mobile fashion, since they may move in the future.

In our area we are looking at earthquakes, which anyone in California who does not do at least some planned is truly a moron, there are a lot of them. What a lot of people don't think about it fire after the quake. I try to spread my stuff out so if there is one and a fire results I will have some of stuff in different locations. That said wild-lands fire it a big thing out here. Clearing around the home is important as well as adding fire breaks. Those of us in rural areas need to take care of ourselves because the fire department will not be able to arrive in time. We also have floods in some of the lower lying areas. I am up higher, above the 100 year flood lines. Lots of things to think about with only limited funds.

[msomnipotent]

My main concerns are financial and weather related disasters. We are prone to tornadoes, blizzards, and severe storms. Earthquakes and floods are not out of the realm of possibility, either. I would not be shocked if my house that jackass built burned down. My proximity to Chicago, Argonne, Fermi Lab, and several nuclear power plants means I am pretty screwed if a terrorist decides to go nuts. I am less than one mile from train tracks that haul all kinds of things. And I am pretty close to two prisons.

I really want to move.

[izzyscout21]

way I see it, you re less than a mile from catching a free ride if you have to.

[Stg1swret]

msomnipotent, looks like you have your work cut out for you in your present location. I'd take care of the natural disasters first. A few weapons in case of prison break and secure some good gas masks and filters should a train with chemicals derail. A good evacuation plan with tons of options would also be a must. The terrorist threat is something we all must deal with, problem is they usually don't announce when and where they will strike, so it is a crap shoot at best. If you plan for the rest you will be pretty much ready for anything.

[bacpacker]

Good discussion so far. I also prep for weather events, eathquakes, train derailments, & truck crashes.We also live not far from a airport and are in the flight pattern at times depending on the wind direction. I'm not sure there is much we can do for that other than be set for a bug out, but if one went down here that is just something that happens right now and nothing you can do.

Other things I worry about and plan for, Nuclear disaster, we live within 30 miles of 1 reactor and about 40 miles from 2 others in a different direction.
I also feel very certain that the economy will take a serious nosedive sooner or later that will devastate this country.
Possible CME from the sun.
Epedemic/Pandemic.

I look forward to further comments.

[The Stig]

I've been giving this some thought the last few days. How do you folks go about planning your preps for various senario's? How do you try and rate the likely hood to rank them?

For me its a combination of historical record and common sense.

Being near the coast, in the deep south, near a lot of military bases I put our threats at:

Hurricanes
Wild Fire (we're surrounded by pine forrests and a lot of scraggly underbrush)
Some sort of chemical spill/super bad military ordinance explosion/nasty government materials released from (or in route to) a base/shipyard.
Severe thunderstorms/hail/lightening
Civil unrest should the coast go apeshit and people start pushing northward

[realist]

I forgot to add that one other thing that I am looking at is a pandemic. It is estimated that the Spanish Flu of 1918 only stopped when everyone on earth came in contact with it. The problem with this flu is that it did not kill infants and the old, it killed the young healthy people. So I would think that it would be good to prepare for something on this nature. We have a pandemic about every 20 years. The new H1N5 has recently been shown to go airborne after five evolutions. It has a such high mortality rate that would leave the earth substantially depopulated if it were to hit. In a situation like this when 40 to 60% of the population is gone it could get lonely real fast.

[Grumpy Old Man]

I'm with Realist on this one! Earthquakes, wildfires, nuclear accidents and pandemics top my list. As I am about 40 miles NE of the San Onofre reactor, 80 miles N of the border, and 75 miles due E of LA I tend to prioritize based on the season, except for EQs; they can occur anytime. I live only a few miles away from the Elsinore fault, which is a very major fault here in Shakeyville. Wildfire season is pretty much over down here unless the Santa Ana winds kick up, then it's Katie bar the door!

Pandemics are a major concern with the southern sieve, woops I mean border, so close. We get a variety of tropical bugs coming up with each new influx of unregistered democrats coming through the sieve. Much more weird diseases, like dengue, than are reported by CDC or the lamestream media.

I'm not so much worried about an attack on San Onofre as it is right outside of Camp Pendleton, but it is situated near a fault which could be a real problem. And since I've located myself for you all, you know that I'm surrounded by military bases, which throws another variable into the equation.

[Grumpy Old Man]

I might add that where I live is desert so water is my biggest concern. At any given time I have at least 55 gallons of filtered water on hand. And since 2010, Berkey filters aren't available in Kommiefornicastan, I use a Cera Grav filter with the Doulton Imperial filter candles to filter my water with the chlorine candles on the bottom.

[Sniper-T]

Something like this work for you Grumpy?

ABS Water Filter:


1. Introduction
Lack of good drinking water kills more children (especially in the Third World) than almost
anything else. Micro-organisms in a water supply can cause dysentery, which can lead to
diarrhea and fatal dehydration. If you’re faced with the need of potable water – in the absence of
a municipal water supply – you and your family could be faced with this problem as well.
Fortunately, we can purify water with bleach, and/or build inexpensive solar-powered distillation
units, or stills, and pasteurization ponds which provide people with all the fresh water they need.
But the water coming from the pasteurization pond or from storage after it’s been purified with
bleach can taste bad. Even though pasteurization or purification has killed most of the
pathogens, you could be left with a chlorine- or metallic-tasting drink. That’s where a good filter
comes in: it will remove many remaining pathogens, as well as particulates, dissolved metals,
and chlorine to make your water taste good.
This article shows you how to build a filter that uses activated charcoal available at aquarium
stores to improve the taste of your water. The filter allows you to easily change the charcoal
when necessary, as well.
2. Materials
There are two plastics commonly used in making pipes: poly-vinyl-chloride (PVC); and
acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS). Both of these formulations are completely safe when
used to carry or store water. PVC is the (usually) thin-walled white plastic used in water
delivery systems; ABS is the usually thick-walled black plastic used a lot in sewage connections.
The reason we’re using ABS is that it’s easier to get a threaded end-cap (in this case, a three-inch
drain plug). Since we want to be able to take the filter apart to clean or replace the activated
charcoal, we need these screw caps on both ends. You can make the filter as large as you want,
but our size is based on three-inch ABS pipes. The end-cap, pipe adapter, and pipe itself can
commonly be found in the three-inch size.
Here are the parts and tools you’ll need to build the filter.
Quantity Item
1 ABS pipe, 3” outside diameter, between 12 and 18 inches long
2 3” ABS drain plugs (used for the end caps)
2 3” ABS adapters (used to connect the drain plug to the pipe)
2 ½” outside diameter PVC schedule 40 tubing, 4 inches long
2 3”-diameter fine mesh brass or stainless steel screening
1 4-lb bag fine activated charcoal
1 Paper coffee filter
1 PVC cement
1 ABS cement
1 Drill with ½” bit
1 Fine sandpaper
The ABS Water Filter page 2 of 3
©Duncan Kunz 1998 See Restriction on Title Page
3. Construction
Refer to the drawing while you’re assembling the filter.
3.1 End-Cap Assemblies
Notice that the bottom of the drain plug has a hollow square protuberance or “knob” – this
allows you to use a wrench to tighten the drain plug. Drill a half inch hole through the bottom of
the knob. The hole should be just big enough for the 4-inch-long, ½-inch diameter PVC tube to
fit in. Using the sandpaper, bevel the inside of one end of the PVC pipe, then lightly sand the
outside of the pipe.
Carefully wipe out the hole you just drilled, then coat the outside of the beveled end of the PVC
pipe with a thin coat of PVC cement. Insert the pipe in the hole about a half-inch, give it a
quarter-twist to spread the PVC cement, then set aside. Do the same with the other drain plug
and PVC pipe.
The ABS Water Filter page 3 of 3
©Duncan Kunz 1998 See Restriction on Title Page
Now take one of the brass or stainless steel screens and place it in the inside of the drain plug. If
necessary, trim it so it will fit. Using a few drops of the ABS cement, glue the rim of the screen
in place. Do the same with the other screen and end cap assembly.
3.2 Adapters and ABS Tube Assembly
Carefully clean and dry the inside and outside of the two adapters and the 3-inch ABS tube.
Spread a small amount of ABS cement around the outside of one end of the tube. Insert the tube
into one of the adapters and give it a quarter-twist to spread the ABS cement, then do the same
with the other end of the ABS tube and the other adapter.
3.3 Final Assembly
Now screw in the two end-cap assemblies into the ends of the tube and adapters, checking for a
secure fit. Mark one of the end caps “TOP” and the other “BOTTOM”. Take off the top end cap
and fill the filter with the activated charcoal to the top of the tube. Screw the top end-cap
assembly on and, holding the filter upright, slowly run several gallons of clean water through the
filter. This will remove the charcoal dust that was mixed in with the charcoal granules.
When the charcoal dust has been removed and the outflow is running clear, remove the top end
cap and place a coffee paper filter on top of the charcoal granules. If necessary, trim it so it will
fit. Replace the upper end cap.
Filter Assembly is now complete. The filter is ready for use.
4. Operations and Maintenance
4.1 Operations
Using whatever adapters are required for your own water system, run the water to be filtered
through the filter from top to bottom, keeping the filter upright. We have found that a flow rate
is about one gallon per minute gives the best results.
Bear in mind that this filter is not designed to remove all pathogens and contaminants, although
it will remove most of them. Our team designed and uses this filter to be the final step in water
delivery for water that has already been chemically purified by sodium hypochlorate 5.5%
solution (unscented chlorine bleach). We found that the filter, when used in this way, removed
almost all of the solids and bleach taste. In addition to removing the bleach taste, the filter also
aerated the water to some extent. For most of us, the result tasted like bottled water.
4.2 Maintenance
How often you change the activated charcoal depends on the level of bleach, particulates, and
other chemicals/metals in the water. Four of these filters have treated one hundred gallons, and
one of them has treated over three hundred gallons, with no apparent degradation in the way the
filter aerates and removes the chemical taste from the treated water.
The coffee filter placed at the top is used as a ‘pre-filter’ to trap any large particulates, and it also
helps to keep the charcoal granules in place. You can probably go through five or six paper filter
changes before you need to change the charcoal.
There are some studies that claim backwashing the charcoal, then heating it at a low (~150 deg
F) temperature will allow you to recycle the charcoal and extend its life. We have not tested that.

[Sniper-T]

crap! The illustrations didn't come through.

It's pretty self explanatory, but if you need to see it, let me know and I can email you the file

[Grumpy Old Man]

Thanks Sniper! I have this in a pdf already but this is a good field expedient filter. The Cera Grav is a plastic rather than stainless body, so it lacks the "coolness" factor that comes with having a Berkey. The filter candles I use are impregnated with activated carbon and silver in the ceramics. The chlorine filters attach to the underside of the filtration reservoir and also remove fluorine and arsenic. When I get out of this place I'll be getting a Berkey as well, since I believe that one can never have too many methods of water purification.

I just bought 5 more lbs of pool shock yesterday, lol.

[realist]

Grumpy I am looking at picking up at least on Berkey soon, if you need one let me know. I have a sister in Fallon that will remail anything that I need. I talked to Berkey who told me that they do not ship to California because of prop 65 "Lead is bad law". The state wants them to certify through a third party that their products are safe. Berkey says that since they sell to the US Govt that should be good enough. The state says no, so Berkey told them to eat crap.

[msomnipotent]

I'm not completely sold on Berkey filters. I know I really need a water filter, but I just can't make up my mind. The reviews of Berkey on Amazon really have me wondering about their product. Amazon.com: 2 Black Berkey Replacement Water Filters - Big Berkey: Kitchen & Dining (http://www.amazon.com/Black-Berkey-Replacement-Water-Filters/dp/B001C1NSE6/ref=cm_cr-mr-title) If you read the review titled "Unable to prove their claims" and there are some more that are similar. I bought a Sawyer filter and couldn't get it to work. Of course I decided to try it months after I bought it so I was not able to return it. Decisions, decisions!

[bacpacker]

I've had a Berky for 4-5 years now. Have both the Black and White filters. Never had a problem, out of it. We run all our drinking water thru it. I do need to purchase 2 sets of each type filter for spares.
They are pricy, but work great.

[nepreneaux]

Planning for all scenarios the same. Once a week I camp on my property and even though the house is just 35 acres away, I do without everything except what I can do with a knife, fire steel and para cord. It is fun. We have tornados mostly, winter power outages because electric co-ops suck, and worst of all, I am just about 60 miles from one of the biggest bases in the country Ft Hood. I have lots of weapons, but I have managed to keep them to three calibers, handguns are all 45s, Shotguns are 12 gauge, and rifles are 30-06. That way if I grab anything the ammo will surely fit.