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View Full Version : Tornado Outbreak on Saturday 3.14.12



The Stig
04-14-2012, 02:24 PM
Original story HERE (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/large-dangerous-plains-tornado/64003)


Life-Threatening Tornado Outbreak Today
Bill Deger
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist
Apr 14, 2012; 5:50 AM ET

Folks in the threat area should take the situation very seriously.

A life-threatening, large outbreak of tornadoes is forecast to unfold across the central and southern Plains later today and tonight.

According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The risk is about as high as it gets."

Oklahoma City and Wichita lie in the heart of the tornado threat area that extends from near Wichita Falls, Texas, to near Omaha, Neb., late this afternoon through tonight.

Despite strong thunderstorms moving through Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri this morning, more powerful storms are set to ignite later today as the environment will be such that numerous damaging thunderstorms will form from 4:00 p.m. CDT on through much of the night. A number of these storms will produce tornadoes.

Given current trends, it appears as if the severe weather late today will, at the very least, reach the level of an outbreak with the potential for dozens of tornadoes. Such events are typically seen only a handful of times each year.

Unfortunately, the worst-case scenario is also on the table. In this situation, there is the possibility of a large-scale outbreak of twisters. Some of the tornadoes could be very strong and remain on the ground for miles.

Dangerous Setup for Storms
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Meghan Evans first warned of the threat for tornadoes earlier in the week, saying, "The ingredients for a tornado outbreak may come together across portions of the Plains later today."

Unfortunately, it now looks as if all those ingredients will come together.

A powerful storm moving into the West today will reach the southern Plains today.

The storm system, combined with a strong rush of wind aloft via the jet stream and a warm, moisture-rich air mass in place originating from the Gulf of Mexico, will allow thunderstorms to fire late in the day.

The difference in wind direction well up in the atmosphere (from the west) and at the surface (from the south) will enhance the threat for tornadoes.

The thunderstorms that will spawn the tornadoes will also drop large, damaging hail, and could produce powerful wind gusts in excess of 60 mph without the help of a funnel.

Timing
While a few isolated storms will be ongoing early this morning, the more powerful storms will wait until late afternoon to fire, probably along and just to the west of the I-35/I-135 corridor from Oklahoma City to Salina, Kan.

As Evans points out, the greatest risk for tornadoes will be across central and eastern Kansas through central Oklahoma this evening.

A cluster of tornado-producing thunderstorms is possible Sunday over portions of the Upper Midwest.

A dangerous situation will become even more precarious after dark with the threat for severe storms and tornadoes continuing and even expanding farther north and east into eastern Nebraska, Iowa western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, northern Texas and northwestern Arkansas.

Joplin and Kansas City, Mo.; Tulsa, Okla., and even the western suburbs of Dallas-Fort Worth could be in for a stormy night.

Portions of several major highways will be at risk, including Interstates 20, 29, 30, 35, 40, 44, 70, 80, 135, 335 and 540.

If you are traveling and a potential tornado is approaching, be prepared to abandon your vehicle and seek safe shelter. Better yet, stay off the roads if you hear that thunderstorms are approaching.

Precautions
Because of the threat, it is imperative that you keep up to date with the weather situation over the next several days, especially today. Have a plan of action before the storms develop.

Immediately head to the basement or a storm shelter if a warning is issued. Mobile homes and trailers should always be evacuated, as well.

Knowing ahead of time what to do in the event of a tornado or strong thunderstorm could save your life.

The Stig
04-14-2012, 02:27 PM
TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index
by Dr. Greg Forbes, Severe Weather Expert

Updated: April 14, 2012 5:30 am ET
Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook) The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

The TOR:CON values range from 0 to 10. A value of 4 means that there is about a 40% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location in the specified area of severe thunderstorm activity. This also means that there is a 60% chance that a tornado will NOT occur.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.


Saturday April 14
IA west night - 8
IA central - 5
IA central, northeast night - 4 to 5
KS central - 8
KS east night - 8
MN southwest - 4
MN south, east-central night - 5
MO northwest night - 6
NE central, east - 8
OK west, north-central (except panhandle) - 7
OK central, northeast night - 5
SD southeast night - 6
TX northwest near Wichita Falls - 7
TX central night, west of I-35 - 4
WI west-central night - 4
Other areas - less than 2


Sunday April 15
AR - 3
IL north - 4
IL central, south - 3
IN northwest - 2 to 3
LA northwest - 3
MI upper - 3
MI west - 3
MN southeast - 4
MO east-central, south - 3
OK southeast - 3
TX southeast - 4
TX rest of area east of I-35 - 3
WI central - 5
WI north - 3 to 4
WI south - 4
Other areas - less than 2


8:High probability of a tornado
6:Moderate possibility of a tornado
4:Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
2:Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
0:Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

all from HERE (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/daily-torcon-forecast_2011-07-11)

realist
04-14-2012, 02:33 PM
I heard that bad weather was moving into that area. You guys keep your heads down. Good luck

bacpacker
04-14-2012, 03:29 PM
Here we go again.

The Stig
04-14-2012, 04:50 PM
Trying to remember if we have Ant's in that part of the world. None are coming to mind right now, but if you're in the predicted danger zone be safe.

Katrina
04-15-2012, 03:06 AM
Local weather says not too bad where I am but they said this last Tuesday was going to be rainy in am then sunny, But started to snow for the morning along with mini hail. SO we're keeping a watch out for the rest of the week end and into next week.

ak474u
04-15-2012, 05:11 AM
We're starting to see the watch boxes pop up out west from Amarillo TX and to the north, they weren't there a few hours ago. We are supposed to get it first thing tomorrow a.m. Here in dallas, it's just windy right now, but we're at the lower end of the threatened area.

Twitchy
04-15-2012, 07:13 AM
everyone in the affected areas, stay safe!!!