Historical constant to expecting TEOTWAWKI?

[Marthony]

If this hits on religion or conspiracy theory too much please lock/delete the thread and accept my apology in advance..!

I can't say I've researched this, but I've noticed it in every incident where end-of-the-world scenarios come up, most recently with the author of the 'Preppers are going to die' video (I watched a number of his other videos after the one in that thread): Everyone who suspects the world will end/civilization will collapse seems to expect it to happen within their lifetime.

In each, from the dark ages to present, they feel there are current/developing rationales or religious references to support that it will occur within a few months to a couple decades. While I don't expect humanity to fail I don't disagree there are many ways it could, and more so than any time prior in history, but it certainly doesn't mean it will.

This is my anti-paranoia thought before driving away (& from internet access) for the weekend. :)

Thoughts?

[Stg1swret]

Well actually if you look at the historical context, we've come pretty close a few times. In this country you have the Civil War ( War of Northern Aggression), WW1, and WW2. From a European stand point there is the Barbarian Invasion, the Black Death, WW1, WW2. From a world stand point, the typhoid epidemic, the Influenza epidemic, and WW2. All were major SHTF events that affected large numbers of the world population.

Today , you have a world monetary system that is teetering on the brink. Rampant global unemployment, an petty dictators and religious fanatics threatening to start a conflict that could draw in the major powers.

The biblical perspective not withstanding, anyone familiar with the Revelations of St John will all remember the line " There will be wars, and rumors of war." The world has never been truly at peace for any long period of time, there are always some regional factions fighting with each other. So far the only thing stopping the majors powers from getting involved is the resources to be gained in the event of a new major war.

Just my 2 cents.

[NWPilgrim]

There are many levels of "the end of the world. " It could be loss of a job for and older couple/family with no prospect of ever getting another job. It could be a regional disaster that not only wipes out your home and most preps but also your towns around so there is no work to boot.


Then there are the very possible near term disasters such as economic collapse which has happened many times but not on the scale of what we have looming. Or a near miss CME that causes widespread damage but is recoverable. Or the California big quake. In all of the many people will suffer but some will do fine even without prepping.

I agree though that the really brutal collapse of world wide society is something that takes centuries to play out. That is why hard core prepping is more than storing up some number of months or years of consumables. It should include tools, learning skills to use tools to make or repair useful things, having land to have room to make and grow things, and passing on a mind set and lifestyle of self-reliance, personal responsibility, respect for liberty and accepting risks, and charity toward others.

[The Stig]

There are many levels of "the end of the world. " It could be loss of a job for and older couple/family with no prospect of ever getting another job. It could be a regional disaster that not only wipes out your home and most preps but also your towns around so there is no work to boot.


Then there are the very possible near term disasters such as economic collapse which has happened many times but not on the scale of what we have looming. Or a near miss CME that causes widespread damage but is recoverable. Or the California big quake. In all of the many people will suffer but some will do fine even without prepping.

I agree though that the really brutal collapse of world wide society is something that takes centuries to play out. That is why hard core prepping is more than storing up some number of months or years of consumables. It should include tools, learning skills to use tools to make or repair useful things, having land to have room to make and grow things, and passing on a mind set and lifestyle of self-reliance, personal responsibility, respect for liberty and accepting risks, and charity toward others.

* Slow Clap *

[Echo2]

There are many levels of "the end of the world. " It could be loss of a job for and older couple/family with no prospect of ever getting another job. It could be a regional disaster that not only wipes out your home and most preps but also your towns around so there is no work to boot.


Then there are the very possible near term disasters such as economic collapse which has happened many times but not on the scale of what we have looming. Or a near miss CME that causes widespread damage but is recoverable. Or the California big quake. In all of the many people will suffer but some will do fine even without prepping.

I agree though that the really brutal collapse of world wide society is something that takes centuries to play out. That is why hard core prepping is more than storing up some number of months or years of consumables. It should include tools, learning skills to use tools to make or repair useful things, having land to have room to make and grow things, and passing on a mind set and lifestyle of self-reliance, personal responsibility, respect for liberty and accepting risks, and charity toward others.

That about sums it up....so many things are happening now....that have never happened before.....

the population numbers are such that it throws a different dynamic into the mix....not to mention the core mentality of that general public...

[izzyscout21]

There are many levels of "the end of the world. " It could be loss of a job for and older couple/family with no prospect of ever getting another job. It could be a regional disaster that not only wipes out your home and most preps but also your towns around so there is no work to boot.


Then there are the very possible near term disasters such as economic collapse which has happened many times but not on the scale of what we have looming. Or a near miss CME that causes widespread damage but is recoverable. Or the California big quake. In all of the many people will suffer but some will do fine even without prepping.

I agree though that the really brutal collapse of world wide society is something that takes centuries to play out. That is why hard core prepping is more than storing up some number of months or years of consumables. It should include tools, learning skills to use tools to make or repair useful things, having land to have room to make and grow things, and passing on a mind set and lifestyle of self-reliance, personal responsibility, respect for liberty and accepting risks, and charity toward others.


* Slow Clap *

*Standing slow clap*

[bacpacker]

Great post NW. That gets a standing ovation!

Echo the population expansion of the last 50 years and the entitlement mentality that has been fostered on this country, and many others, since the 60's has been building steadily. Just in the last 5 years here has a half way point been reached (as many getting as paying in) and it's just a matter of time till the takers run out of folks to take from.

I will not even get into the religious aspect here other than to say this. I've read the end of the book and we WIN utlimately, although things will be worse than at any time in history leading up to that point.

[Marthony]

Interesting posts. I suppose Legionarres disease around WWI would be in the list as well.

The population growth curve and JIT logistics combination is what worries me most. I expect to see trouble coming where I live, but a large scale food supply situation can't be dodged as easily..!

[The Stig]

The power outage situation in India could be an interesting case study depending on how things play out.

[Kodiak]

With the majority of people living in or near metropolitan areas and the loss of self sustaining skill sets that our forefather's possessed this could be one of the few times in history that the world as we know it could come crashing down around us. I don't want to be all doom and gloom but imagine if modern technology was suddenly taken away from everyone , it would be a total collapse of society because the majority of people do not know how to feed themselves without modern conveniences like grocery stores and microwaves. Imagine not being able to drive a vehicle, how many people do you think know how to take care of and ride a horse? I don't want to get into every hypothetical situation, but the world of conveniences that we live in could become our downfall in a very short period of time.

I remember grandpa telling us that he did not remember much of the great depression because our family lived on the farm, ate the food that they raised and didn't have much money to begin with. Do you think that many people nowadays could tell that same story to their grandchildren fifty years from now?

Just my. 02 cents

[Marthony]

And that is the terror of an EMP attack..!

[bacpacker]

It wouldn't even take an EMP, Just a handful of major sub stations taking major craps and use up the stored transformers. Then we lose a couple more and there you are. As old and over loaded as our grid is, it won't take a huge amount for things to start tripping out. Utility Co's don't keep many spares on hand and some of the transformers used in the substations take a long time to build. Add to that some stuff isn't made in the states any longer. Added all together and things could come down a lot quicker and for a lot longer than most people would think.

[The Stig]

Didn't the east coast just have a major blackout a few years ago and the source was traced to a tree-limb falling on a power line in Cleveland or something?

[Sniper-T]

This is going back a number of years (late 90's) but a fire at a hydro Dam in Northern Manitoba, knocked out the power for most of Southern Ontario and Quebec, as well as 1/2 the NE United States.

[Marthony]

Indeed, I think it was 2003 that saw a cascading failure leaving 50 million without power in Canada & the US; CBC ran through historical power outages last night after talking about the 3/4 billion-person outage that was just ended.

[Echo2]

What most sheep don't realize....is how fragile our power grid is.....let alone all other types of infrastructure.

I have an outline to a book that I started to write after 9/11....called "Terrorism 101"....

I was going to write it to show folks how unsecured the nation is....by explaining what a 10 man team could do...and how it could be done....on the cheap.

The research that I did scared the crap outta me.....and BTW.....it wouldn't take 10 guys.....and you could shut the country down.

I outlined until the 9th chapter....and my moral compass got the best of me. What if someone used it for a blueprint....I would be a hated MF....and probably couldn't look myself in the mirror anymore.

But let me tell you....a few intelligent folks....a few thousand bucks.....and a few basic supplies....this country would be screwed.

I still get a bit unsettled thinking about it now.

[cwconnertx]

It doesn't take much, the technology to destroy has vastly surpassed the technology and ability to protect. Our infrastructure is fragile in many ways.

We depend on power, sewers, gas lines, roads, trains, even air travel to get the things we use.

I think in the future we will be producing and consuming more things locally, as transportation gets more expensive and technology replaces labor local
factories will have a cost advantage. Its already happening in many ways. With CNC machining, parts can be prototyped and produces very quickly, for
much lower cost than was the case in the past.

Of course any upset to the global supply chain can push this along.

[Echo2]

It doesn't take much, the technology to destroy has vastly surpassed the technology and ability to protect. Our infrastructure is fragile in many ways.



The technology to destroy has been there for many decades....one step above bear skins and stone knives.

[ladyhk13]

Echo ya might want to be careful about having even the outline around. It could be something used against you and you could be labeled a terrorist yourself even though you have done nothing wrong. Someone could show intent. I don't think I would be telling any more people about it...just saying you are on an open forum dude.

[The Stig]

Didn't the east coast just have a major blackout a few years ago and the source was traced to a tree-limb falling on a power line in Cleveland or something?

I guess it was more than a few years ago...

From HERE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003)


The report states that a generating plant in Eastlake, Ohio (a suburb of Cleveland) went offline amid high electrical demand, putting a strain on high-voltage power lines (located in a distant rural setting) which later went out of service when they came in contact with "overgrown trees". The cascading effect that resulted ultimately forced the shutdown of more than 100 power plants.