SHTF has happened, what do you do?

[Possom]

After the last thread discussion on taking people in during shtf let me pose another question to you. Let's just use a nuclear attack on DC and NYC as an example.

All the bottom has fallen out, all structure of government on the federal level are gone. No news coming in from the state level. Will you lock your group down and dig in immediately or do you still go into your local community and interact with other people? Is it better to dig in at the first news of the attack and loss of the capital or are you better off holding out a week or so and monitoring the reactions of people in your town or the town closest to your BOL?

Would you be better gathering intel of how folks are acting in your area to understand the mind set of those you might encounter coming to your compound? Or would you be better off sticking to low tech communications for your intel? I.E. CB and ham radio.

Should you go into town once a week or so to talk to people about what has been happening in the community; break ins, murders, rumors of gang marauder activity? Or would it be better to avoid town all together and blindly expect the worse?

Personally I would still go into town (small town of 3,000 people) every week or so just to gather intel on the happenings in the community. To see if people have started bartering in an open area yet, to check with the local government for any sort of news from outside our immediate area, and to see how locals are being treated by the form of government that has taken hold in our town.

People will look to those in power on the local level when something like this happens. I am unsure of how the local leaders will react to maintain order in town. If weapons restrictions had been out in place inside of town I would stick to the outskirts of town to gather intel. Being disarmed is never a good idea regardless of why.

[David Armstrong]

I'm not sure why a nuke on NYC and DC would make much difference around here. There certainly is no reason for it to interrupt state government or the communications network outside of losing some channels and programs from radio and TV. With that, however, our group has a 2-stage process. If there is enough possibility of problems to worry us contact is made across the group and some members go to the main site to and start setting things there into motion. The rest carry on as normal, or as normal as possible. If things get worse a 2nd contact is made to advise all members the sky is falling. If bad enough the first stage can be bypassed, of course, and any group mamber can run to cover at their discretion.

Following that, we plan on going around to gather intel and see what is happening on a regular basis, whether that be going into the local urban areas, scouting, or whatever is needed.

[Possom]

Well the problem with an attack on DC and NYC would be the economic fall out to follow. The nerve centers of our country would be cut.

[Sniper-T]

work as much overtime as possible, and keep buying what I need until your problems become my problems. then hunker down an wait it all out.

[ak474u]

I'd have a coke.

[Stormfeather]

Ahh, now we are getting into my area of expertise! Well, lets break this down to the micro level. Lets say a 45 Kiloton nuclear grade weapon like Pakistan has is detonated at airburst level of Lower Manhattan (Downtown NY City)

Estimated fatalities: 475,380 Estimated injuries: 1,028,600

In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 3,153,119 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation. Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored.

Effects radii for 45 kiloton airburst:

Fireball radius: 280 m (0.25 km²) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 250 m.

Air blast radius (20 psi): 1 km (3.16 km²) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%. Optimal height of burst to maxmimize this effect is 0.65 km.

Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.61 km (8.13 km²) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.

Air blast radius (5 psi): 2.48 km (19.2 km²) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Optimal height of burst to maxmimize this effect is 1.02 km.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 3.25 km (33.1 km²) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 9.4 cal/cm2.

NOW. . .lets make it a ground burst level detonation. . . .

Estimated fatalities: 300,710 Estimated injuries: 446,730 While the casualty numbers are significantly lower, its still pretty harsh.

In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 1,501,856 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation. Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored.

Effects radii for 45 kiloton surface burst


Fireball radius: 360 m (0.41 km²) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased.


Air blast radius (20 psi): 0.77 km (1.85 km²) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%.

Air blast radius (5 psi): 1.57 km (7.77 km²) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread.

Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.61 km (8.13 km²) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 2.74 km (23.6 km²) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 9.4 cal/cm2.Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.
Estimated total-dose fallout contours for a 45 kiloton surface burst with a 15 mph wind:

Fallout contour for 1 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 159 km
Maximum width: 17.3 km
Approximate area affected: 2,580 km²

Fallout contour for 10 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 107 km
Maximum width: 11 km
Approximate area affected: 1,210 km²

Fallout contour for 100 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 55.3 km
Maximum width: 4.59 km
Approximate area affected: 354 km²

Fallout contour for 1,000 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud (stem only) distance: 7.64 km
Maximum stem width: 1.78 km
Approximate area affected: 23.7 km²
The selected radiation level is too high for cloud fallout at this yield, and so this contour is not mapped. Maximum radiation contour for cloud fallout that can be mapped for this yield is 526 r/hr.

Now, with this in mind, depending on prevailing winds, the damage could extend as far as Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. What some people fail to realize, that while horrific, a single nuclear launch/detonation actually wont affect the majority of the United States. The only way that it could affect the majority of the US, is an upper atmosphere detonation, which would result in very little actual damage, but would have massive effects in regards to the EMP effect.

Now, if you transpose the detonation location from New York to Washington DC, the numbers actually are better!

Estimated fatalities: 119,130 Estimated injuries: 154,190, Much lower than New York City!

Of course, with this upside, there is also an upside, the majority of the elected leadership of the United States will be killed.

Now, if you want to go really big, lets say the 100 Megaton bomb like the Tsar Bomba in Russia's arsenal, then you can pretty much write off the North-Eastern Seaboard all the way to halfway thru Pennsylvania heading west.

That being said, I would more than likely institute the bugout and start doing my recon sweeps. Normally as well, I would also start doing OP on the closest town as well.

[ladyhk13]

work as much overtime as possible, and keep buying what I need until your problems become my problems. then hunker down an wait it all out.

Huh? Dude, ya really think there's gonna be a job? Oh yeah, never mind....forgot, you don't live in this country. Duh.

[TroubleShooter]

Ahh, now we are getting into my area of expertise! Well, lets break this down to the micro level. Lets say a 45 Kiloton nuclear grade weapon like Pakistan has is detonated at airburst level of Lower Manhattan (Downtown NY City)

Estimated fatalities: 475,380 Estimated injuries: 1,028,600

In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 3,153,119 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation. Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored.

Effects radii for 45 kiloton airburst:

Fireball radius: 280 m (0.25 km²) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 250 m.

Air blast radius (20 psi): 1 km (3.16 km²) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%. Optimal height of burst to maxmimize this effect is 0.65 km.

Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.61 km (8.13 km²) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.

Air blast radius (5 psi): 2.48 km (19.2 km²) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Optimal height of burst to maxmimize this effect is 1.02 km.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 3.25 km (33.1 km²) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 9.4 cal/cm2.

NOW. . .lets make it a ground burst level detonation. . . .

Estimated fatalities: 300,710 Estimated injuries: 446,730 While the casualty numbers are significantly lower, its still pretty harsh.

In any given 24-hour period, there are approximately 1,501,856 people in the 1 psi range of the most recent detonation. Modeling casualties from a nuclear attack is difficult. These numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive. Fallout effects are ignored.

Effects radii for 45 kiloton surface burst


Fireball radius: 360 m (0.41 km²) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased.


Air blast radius (20 psi): 0.77 km (1.85 km²) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%.

Air blast radius (5 psi): 1.57 km (7.77 km²) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread.

Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.61 km (8.13 km²) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 2.74 km (23.6 km²) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 9.4 cal/cm2.Note: Rounding accounts for any inconsistencies in the above numbers.
Estimated total-dose fallout contours for a 45 kiloton surface burst with a 15 mph wind:

Fallout contour for 1 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 159 km
Maximum width: 17.3 km
Approximate area affected: 2,580 km²

Fallout contour for 10 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 107 km
Maximum width: 11 km
Approximate area affected: 1,210 km²

Fallout contour for 100 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud distance: 55.3 km
Maximum width: 4.59 km
Approximate area affected: 354 km²

Fallout contour for 1,000 rads per hour:
Maximum downwind cloud (stem only) distance: 7.64 km
Maximum stem width: 1.78 km
Approximate area affected: 23.7 km²
The selected radiation level is too high for cloud fallout at this yield, and so this contour is not mapped. Maximum radiation contour for cloud fallout that can be mapped for this yield is 526 r/hr.

Now, with this in mind, depending on prevailing winds, the damage could extend as far as Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. What some people fail to realize, that while horrific, a single nuclear launch/detonation actually wont affect the majority of the United States. The only way that it could affect the majority of the US, is an upper atmosphere detonation, which would result in very little actual damage, but would have massive effects in regards to the EMP effect.

Now, if you transpose the detonation location from New York to Washington DC, the numbers actually are better!

Estimated fatalities: 119,130 Estimated injuries: 154,190, Much lower than New York City!

Of course, with this upside, there is also an upside, the majority of the elected leadership of the United States will be killed.

Now, if you want to go really big, lets say the 100 Megaton bomb like the Tsar Bomba in Russia's arsenal, then you can pretty much write off the North-Eastern Seaboard all the way Pennsylvania.

That being said, I would more than likely institute the bugout and start doing my recon sweeps. Normally as well, I would also start doing OP on the closest town as well.

Just one question...........Would the radiation make the dead inedible? Don't laugh it is a thought, one never knows.

[bacpacker]

TS, I would not consider them as edibile. If they have enough radiation to kill them it will have residue included in the remaining tissue to some degree large or small.

Stormy, Excellent report. It appears you have studied this subject well and have access to high quality detailed info.

For my part, I would be communicating via ham radio as far and wide as possible, but even more so locally. We have multiple area nets that i can get in to that cover close to a third of my state. Some on the western edge of my area work regularly with TEMA (State EMA) and would be a wealth of info on where things in the state stand. Very locally, I live a litle over a mile from our little town hall (community size 1200-1500) and have a member of the planning commission and board of aldermen as a neighbor. It won't be hard to learn what is going on in our neck of the woods. I most likely will not be going to work for some time due to the distance I live from my work and the nature of the work performed there. I will be doing all I can to perpare our place as best as possible to get thru what may be coming in the future weeks.

[Stormfeather]

Stormy, Excellent report. It appears you have studied this subject well and have access to high quality detailed info.

For my part, I would be communicating via ham radio as far and wide as possible, but even more so locally. We have multiple area nets that i can get in to that cover close to a third of my state. Some on the western edge of my area work regularly with TEMA (State EMA) and would be a wealth of info on where things in the state stand. Very locally, I live a litle over a mile from our little town hall (community size 1200-1500) and have a member of the planning commission and board of aldermen as a neighbor. It won't be hard to learn what is going on in our neck of the woods. I most likely will not be going to work for some time due to the distance I live from my work and the nature of the work performed there. I will be doing all I can to perpare our place as best as possible to get thru what may be coming in the future weeks.

Yes, one of my many not-so-glorious jobs in the military is being the SME on NBC/CBRNE. I specialize in Nuclear weaponry and the effects of it. Most of the reading on it is about as dry as the Sahara on the 4th of July. Sorry about the overflow of information, I sometimes forget that im supposed to be a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal fanboi and my inner geek comes out!

- - - Updated - - -


Just one question...........Would the radiation make the dead inedible? Don't laugh it is a thought, one never knows.

In short, yes, the closer to the blast radius, the higher the exposure rate, the worse it is, hence dead bodies. And No. . .Sweet Baby Rays BBQ sauce will not help the taste or the effects it will have on your body if you consume the radiated flesh.

[Possom]

Yes, one of my many not-so-glorious jobs in the military is being the SME on NBC/CBRNE. I specialize in Nuclear weaponry and the effects of it. Most of the reading on it is about as dry as the Sahara on the 4th of July. Sorry about the overflow of information, I sometimes forget that im supposed to be a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal fanboi and my inner geek comes out!

- - - Updated - - -



In short, yes, the closer to the blast radius, the higher the exposure rate, the worse it is, hence dead bodies. And No. . .Sweet Baby Rays BBQ sauce will not help the taste or the effects it will have on your body if you consume the radiated flesh.

What about if you marinate them in potassium iodide?

[Stormfeather]

What about if you marinate them in potassium iodide?

Taste like crap for a marinade, sure it looks like Worcestershire sauce, but sure as hell doesnt taste like it.

[Sniper-T]

Huh? Dude, ya really think there's gonna be a job? Oh yeah, never mind....forgot, you don't live in this country. Duh.

lol. and my company does the majority of it's work off north american shores... and it would directly support the rebuilding of the infrastructure. So until you guys went all willy-nilly and started dropping nukes all over the world, My job would be busy busy busy.

[MegaCPC]

I'm thinking a single non EMP detonation on the east coast wouldn't affect me a whole lot. Anyone outside of the general area would probably hear about it on the news, just like 9/11/01. With a nuke though, I would most likely load up and head to my secondary location in the sticks as soon as possible after hearing of it, just to be farther away from the major cities. You never know if it's a single attack or one in a series of orchestrated strikes.

EDIT: I think I would be more worried about repercussions by our own government rather than the actual effects of the attack itself. An event like that could be used to ram the next Patriot Act or NDAA type bill down our throats. It would be easy to justify to the sheeple in the name of safety. Never let a crisis go to waste...

[Possom]

I see it as instant COG implementation and marshal law indefinitely. You would recognize anywhere in the USA by the next morning.

[ladyhk13]

lol. and my company does the majority of it's work off north american shores... and it would directly support the rebuilding of the infrastructure. So until you guys went all willy-nilly and started dropping nukes all over the world, My job would be busy busy busy.

Guess we will be planning our vacation about that time and come visit you then? ;)

[Gunfixr]

Well, since the driving distance from me to DC is about 180 miles, based on Stormy's post, I won't have to do a thing.


Except provide night light service for roaches.

[bacpacker]

Yes, one of my many not-so-glorious jobs in the military is being the SME on NBC/CBRNE. I specialize in Nuclear weaponry and the effects of it. Most of the reading on it is about as dry as the Sahara on the 4th of July. Sorry about the overflow of information, I sometimes forget that im supposed to be a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal fanboi and my inner geek comes out!

Being a SME on any topic requires a great deal of study and ability to have a deep understanding about the topic at hand. Having read a fair amount on Nuclear effects, measurments, and such, I have to totally agree with you. It is god awful dry and boring. I do appreceiate the info you posted though. i haven't ran across that info in anything I have read.

[Stormfeather]

Theres a really "fun" animation that Dr Wellerstein came up with, thats actually one of the toys I use when I am giving a class, its called nukemap3d there are earlier versions just called nukemap, which I reccomend everyone download and try out in their area so they can have a basic idea of what fallout patterns may be, as well as finding out what your standoff distances need to be to major cities in your particular AO to be able to survive a nuclear detonation.


http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap3d/?&clat=36.19304616333313&clng=-84.00780214645482&calt=1878724.6841684075&chdg=0.2715498278423223&ctlt=0&crll=0&mlat=35.96057246013998&mlng=-83.92073920526549&mtyp=3&malt=275.5233459472656&kt=100000&fout=1&fwnd=5&ffis=52&fang=45

I put the bomb at Knoxville, and made it a 10mt detonation, you can get a really good idea of fallout and height and width measurements of the mushroom cloud as well.

[Sniper-T]

Guess we will be planning our vacation about that time and come visit you then? ;)

bring your own cats! they're a little scarce up here...

;)

[ladyhk13]

bring your own cats! they're a little scarce up here...

;)

Nah, I think we can find some fine Canadian ones up there no problem ;)

[bacpacker]

Theres a really "fun" animation that Dr Wellerstein came up with, thats actually one of the toys I use when I am giving a class, its called nukemap3d there are earlier versions just called nukemap, which I reccomend everyone download and try out in their area so they can have a basic idea of what fallout patterns may be, as well as finding out what your standoff distances need to be to major cities in your particular AO to be able to survive a nuclear detonation.


http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap3d/?&clat=36.19304616333313&clng=-84.00780214645482&calt=1878724.6841684075&chdg=0.2715498278423223&ctlt=0&crll=0&mlat=35.96057246013998&mlng=-83.92073920526549&mtyp=3&malt=275.5233459472656&kt=100000&fout=1&fwnd=5&ffis=52&fang=45

I put the bomb at Knoxville, and made it a 10mt detonation, you can get a really good idea of fallout and height and width measurements of the mushroom cloud as well.

Gee thanks Stormy! I'm DRT. Cool site, It really opens your eyes as to how far away you need to be from a target to have any shot at being safe, in particular when you consider fallout.
Great site to play with, thanks for posting it.

[Sniper-T]

yeah... the fallout thing really sux when you consider the prevailing winds!
:(

luckily my closest city isn't a target big enough to require overkill. May have to bunker down for a few months, but should clear easy enough, as there would be nothing but fresh air coming in behind

[Gunfixr]

Well, I was just using the provided scenario.
Really, while DC is 180 miles away, Langley AFB, which houses TAC (Tactical Air Command) HQ, is about 3/4 mile away.
Then, Yorktown Naval Weapons Station, which is where nukes are stored, is about 20-30 miles away.

I will be vaporized. I will feel nothing.

It will be over before I can say "Oh, sh..............................."

[helomech]

Pretty good here, nearest military base is about 4 hours or more. I am almost 3 hours from any major city. Austin is 4 hours west, Dallas is 3 hours north, and Houston is almost 3 hours south.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Thanks brother, looks like we're good thanks to the northeasterly winds and distances. I'll be passing this one on. Great find, this should spin my brothers around for awhile.