Scenario: Food supply problems

[bacpacker]

Here is the scenario for all you scenario lovers. Give this one a shot and see what we come up with.

In various parts of the country we have different problems going on. From drought causing severe shortages and very poor quality in the west of all the seasonal fruits and veggies that is shipped all around the country. To all the bad storms in the north and Midwest with ice and snow for months on end taking the animal herds and grain crops to all time low’s. Add in multiple freezes in Florida wiping out their input of fruits and veggies. The add in lots of rain, plus higher than normal snow and ice in the southeast delaying planting of seasonal crops.

What are your plans for short term (1-3 months), medium term (3-6 months), and long term (6-24 months)?

What is your expected availability locally of fruits, veggies, and meats?

How do you expect prices to react of the times given?

[Possom]

Luckily my wife and I have enough food storage to survive out of our pantry for about a year. We will be butchering 3 goats in September. About to take a feeder calf to slaughter in a week or so. Will be planting a garden soon.

Feed costs is where it will hit me in the wallet. Let's hope for another good hay season here in Arkansas or we are in trouble.

[ak474u]

Supplement available food from stores with storage food until garden is up and running this spring. Add additional production capabilities with vertical gardening (working on this for several plant types now). Start hunting again for supplemental meat (Haven't done it in several years due to my son being born, and time constraints). Split a calf with a cattle raiser we know. Build a rabbit hutch and grab a bunch of Flemish giants (can be partially fed with garden scraps) Assuming there isn't unrest, and a grid issue, we've got lots of frozen food, probably 3-4 weeks of meals if we just ate off of that, and 2 months worth if supplementing garden/hunting/available food supply etc. process and can surplus garden production to replace used up items.

I've got a .28 acre lot, most of which is back yard, so I can till up most of that if needed. I can also hang planters on the fence. I've got 400 + linear feet of fence that would support "gutter gardens" as well. We're trying to figure out different greens that produce fast and often for our diet, so having fast producing food would be nice.

[helomech]

We have 3 freezers full of meat, and chickens, ducks, geese, rabbits, and wild game so no worries there. We would be sucking on fruits and vegetables, but they are not a big stable of our diet. I would miss having bread though.

[bacpacker]

For this scenario we will say there is no roving gangs or raiders at this point.

[ditchmedic]

We would be screwed. Our food supply isnt where it should be, but its growing.

[Alas Babylon]

Short term live of the food preps: the freezers first, then into the can good.
Your scenario included freezes in Fl, I'm thinking that probably put a hit on my fall / winter garden.
Some plants like mustard greens and peas might survive, but most plants I have in the ground now (carrots, lettuce, broccoli) would not. I have a “gutter planter” that can be moved into the porch to keep warm. It’s currently full of lettuce, spinach, and strawberries. So we could at least have salad to supplement the stored food.
Right after the freeze pick all the citrus, juice, and freeze. The freeze should not hurt the other trees –apples, peaches, nectarine, plums, grapes, olives, so hopefully they will produce in the spring.
Then get back out and plant again, living off the can foods until its ready. High rains would flood my main garden, so I would have to start in a new area on top of a grassy rise between the olive trees. I have a planter garden around the porch that should never flood. If it does, every road in central Florida would have to be under 3 feet of water.
Hopefully the chickens will keep producing.

[bacpacker]

Alas Im betting at least your carrots would continue growing. I planted some ba k in the fall and last time I pulled one to check it was long and skinny but very much alive. I need to pull another tonigt to see how they have done the last 2-3 weeks with temps into the single digits.

[ak474u]

Alas Im betting at least your carrots would continue growing. I planted some ba k in the fall and last time I pulled one to check it was long and skinny but very much alive. I need to pull another tonigt to see how they have done the last 2-3 weeks with temps into the single digits.

Mine made it thru the winter, they look really sad, very skinny like yours. If they'll survive icemageddon like we had in December, where they sat under a glacier on our hill for a week in a raised planter, they should make it just about anywhere.

[Onestep]

AB, carrots, bok Choy, collard, cauliflower, broccoli, lettuce, spinach and onions will survive frost and then some down here.
I'm with you though, freezer first, then canned, then long term if needed. Gardens will be fine as you can always grow something down here regardless of the weather.
Throw in some fish and other game (while it's still available) and you buy more time. Don't have chickens yet but would plan on them and rabbits (getting them might be a problem though).

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

I would say that we are covered for at least a year. However it will get boring after a spell as all foods do. Meat will become an issue with the locals because they will hunt the deer population, I'm afraid they will also hunt the neighbors cattle as well. Situations like this bring out the worst in people. You will find out what kind of animals we truly are.

[Possom]

I believe you are right bwrr. People will start killing other peoples livestock if given the chance. Until farmers start killing the people killing their stock.

Something like that starts I will be bringing most of my stock up into the barns and locking them up every night.

There is a thin veneer of civility over the top of something very ugly. It doesn't take much to crack the veneer. I do not trust people for that very reason.

[helomech]

One of the reasons we don't have cattle. To hard to keep control over. Chickens, rabbits, ducks and fish are a lot easier to keep secure.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Good point but I'm not a big fan of those "tasty little morsels" and yes, they will come after the big red meat but they will be wasteful at the same time. Due to fear and stupidity.

[Possom]

If and when it gets to the point of people not being able to buy all the food they want in the store things will go down hill fast. You will have to guard what you have at all times. Your livestock, your garden, and your supplies. Our current laws governing defending property will go out the window. People will start killing other people for stealing from them.

Don't count on being able to harvest wild game. Everyone and their brother will be out there killing anything they see move. The animals that aren't killed will push back into the mountains far enough no one will ever see them. It will get hard quick.

[helomech]

If and when it gets to the point of people not being able to buy all the food they want in the store things will go down hill fast. You will have to guard what you have at all times. Your livestock, your garden, and your supplies. Our current laws governing defending property will go out the window. People will start killing other people for stealing from them.

Don't count on being able to harvest wild game. Everyone and their brother will be out there killing anything they see move. The animals that aren't killed will push back into the mountains far enough no one will ever see them. It will get hard quick.

But he said for this scenario it did not get to that point. In a total melt down, yes all game will be gone, just like during the great depression. Deer had to be imported back to most states after things settled down.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

That was my point. We have a pretty healthy population around here of game. But we also have a popution of those that will come out of the woodwork rapidly to screw that up.

[tystone48]

Just want to introduce myself...hello Im tystone48 truther/ prepper

[bacpacker]

Welcome to the colony .

[tystone48]

Thank you ! Just enjoying our ice storm that just rolled in...

[bacpacker]

Stay safe thru that. You should go over to the introduction section and fill everyone in on what you are up to. We always like hearing from new folks and the plans they are working on.

[Caveman Survival]

Up here in the great white north we have a relatively short growing season. We can't plant until mid may and first frost hits I. Early October most years, so making the most of our growing season for us backyard farmers is a must.

Living in an urban setting poses an even greater situation. Planting has to be done with long term storage and space availability in mind. We limit our growing to the greens and root veggies that we consume the most, and supplement it with a few luxuries like aunt Molly ground cherries, strawberries and stuff like that.

With all that said, if there were food supply problems, short term we have a nice supply of home canned goods and water to give us enough calories to keep on keeping on. We'd be ok for a 1-3 week interruption. Depending on the time of year, our garden would provide us with with a nice harvest to replenish our canned items as well as provide us with nice fresh greens. Our canned meat supply could get us through a 1-6 month interruption, being subsidized with the plentiful wild rabbits and squirrels in the near area (we do live right at the edge of the city surrounded by farm land). Most around here wouldn't even think of hoppers or tree rats as food, so I don't think I would have a lot of competition for this resource... And even people got desperate enough I would have a nice supply stored. Water would be a concern at this point. In the event the bulk of the scenario ran thru winter, disabling gardening, our canned goods, properly rationed could stretch to 6 months.

At the 6- 24 + months mark, things are obviously critical. We could stretch into growing season which would help out a lot, as well as this type of time frame would most likely carry us into prime wild edible seasons, so fruits, greens, nuts etc would be available to store they the winter. Our canned meat supply would be running thin, so attempts to harvest wild game would be prioritized, canning and drying as necessary. At this point water would be gold for my family. If I was still able to travel we have access to property with a small stream that runs thru it, so relocating, if able, would be assessed. If it was not possible to travel, we do have two rivers that converge in the centre of our city... So with careful treatment we might be able to utilize this resource. This time frame, and anything longer is really anybody's guess as to the reality of success... It's all brand new territory. I hope that my skills and knowledge would at least give me an edge. Hopefully I'll never need to find out

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Just want to introduce myself...hello Im tystone48 truther/ prepper

Welcome Aboard, I hope you find your self at home here. There are a few of us that are "unusual" (me) can't speak for the others. But there is plenty of stuff here to feed off of and your contributions are welcome. Remember.......the only dumb question is the one that was never asked. We do slap each other around a bit but it's only in jest and we don't have anyone here on a "power trip" at least I don't think so. SO just knock yourself out and have fun.

On a side note, you're obviously in the southeast so hunker down. Watch your stuff, pipes, heat, electric, kids, and your assorted stupid people. Be leery of strangers knockin on your door during this situation. Not being paranoid. just this is the time of opportunity.

Be safe.

[bacpacker]

IMHO there have been some really good ideas put up so far. Keep them coming.

Here's my thoughts at this point. We would be eating all the fresh stuff first along with the frozen stuff. This is our typical start up with most any scenario. We would fill in with food storage as needed till fresh veggies start coming in from the garden.

We have a row of carrots in the ground that will be ready to eat in the next month or two. Very shortly after that we would be starting seed for a whole list of foods. This would take a few weeks to get anything up and ready to eat. I would also build some cold frames and hoop houses to get a head start on growing season. This would get us some early cold season crops moving along. We would be planting the garden as soon as possible and would be doing staggered plantings of quite a few crops so we would have ongoing crops coming in to both eat and can or dry. I would also be trying to put in a greenhouse to try and extend our growing season well out into the fall and early winter.

I also found out today that we have a family down the road that raises sheep and goats and sale to the public. We are about a mile and half from a lake, so plenty of opportunity for fishing as well. Chickens are laying and would be hatching off little ones for a few months down the road.

I see a lot of hard work to keep this up, but doable.

[LUNCHBOX]

Prices will rise bigtime.

Fruit losses.....stocked major vitamins.
Veggie losses....planning a garden/greenhouse.
Meat losses....hunt or fish if needed.

There's the pantry/freezer/tubs also if l really have to.

[tystone48]

I grow organic above ground garden.. all heirloom ...I grow plenty to eat and dehydrate the rest..bucket packer. .been in it 8 yrs now...buckets in mylar with / oxygen absorbers. .losts of buckets there great cause you can bury in ground...also have king size bed to store under ...it wotks great if stored properly I use them instead of bed rails solid buckets about 36 under 1 bed king size with sheet of plywood over top add box springs and matress you cant even tell the difference. ..but it sure a great way to store food ...great space saver! Dehydrating is great way and light weight...just thought I would pass this alone great way for limited space!

[tystone48]

Oh and forgot to mention...yes beef or just your pantry will be hard to guard. ..I dont eat much meat...but look into camning your own meat...really easy at least it wont be walking around for people to take from you and the feed bill stops in the Jar...lots on utube on canning meat and also salt curing/ smoke house ...its an easy build...just the way your great great grand parents did...have yo think out if the box and go back to old school...it works and stores very well...nothing better then a five yr country ham!!

[Possom]

Ty I have to disagree about slaughtering your stock removing the problem. If you slaughter all your livestock you will not have any breeding stock to produce feeders for next year.

People will have to come up with a way to guard their breeding stock or they will starve the next year. Cattle are harder because they require a lot of room to roam. Smaller stock such as dexter cattle or other miniature breeds are easier. Goats and sheep are a lot easier to guard because they can be put up in a barn at night.

Most small farms use multi propose animals. If you slaughter your animals you not only cut out breeding more animals but also kill your milk and cheese supply.

[Gunfixr]

Here in the urban sprawl, animals are forbidden, except maybe for rabbits. You can have chickens, but no roosters, and only like 3 or something. No goats or anything larger.
I think there are still a few homes from before all these laws that have animals that are "grandfathered", but they are almost gone.
But for fresh meat, seems everybody buys cats and then sets them free to roam the city, so there'll be fresh meat for awhile. Got squirrels, rabbits, and even a possum otherwise. Heard of deer, but haven't seen one myself. If I can figure where they hide though...............

Don't keep a lot frozen, power outages just often enough to make that prohibitively expensive.

Got several months tucked away, canned and freeze dried. Working on more, space is getting to be a problem.

Planning above ground gardens. Be hard to protect.

[Katrina]

I think we could manage about 8 months so far to supplement till the garden goes in. As for water, trying to figure out how to cache the water pouring out of sump with out the neighbors knowing, I know that sounds harsh but if there's rationing I need to think of my family and the friends we have heading here first to have drinking water (purifying it as needed) and be able to grow the food we'll need. I think we might be able to get some meat from local farmers or university but the prices will be exorbitant. So far township won't let us do chickens, much less any goats or rabbits. We can have "pet" rabbits but if we get above a certain number of rabbits, they consider that livestock/ farming, a NO-NO in their eyes. Had someone in township raising rabbits for profit and they were shut down even though they tried to keep the number they had quiet, There's always some nosy Parker tattling. This June the alternative energy show is coming to the fairgrounds by me and I will be attending to see about getting wind and solar for the house, as I expect in a 12-24 month problem the natural gas will either be rationed or shut down completely, that means the electricity and heat will be sporadic or non existent. Oh yeah , and the standby won't run either.

[Gunfixr]

That's not harsh at all. You are under no obligation to supply anybody besides yourself with anything, except in the case of children under the age of 18. Therefore, everyone outside that, such as other family, spouse, etc., you elect to help because of a vested interest, family, love relationship, etc.
Neighbors, strangers, all others fall outside this. That may sound harsh, but remember, they had the same opportunity to prepare that you did, and they didn't take it for whatever reason. More than likely, some of those people know that you prepare at least somewhat, even if not how much. They did not bother to ask for your assistance in their own preparations, which you probably would have given.
It's on them, not you.
Also, while it may be argued that by not helping someone "in need", you are killing them, at the same time, helping them can very easily kill you or one of those you are helping. Your supplies are finite, and you cannot know how long you will need them before resupply can be made.
Sure, there are events that you can know you will have plenty for, but if it all went really south, you wouldn't know for how long.

Post-shtf, if you are handing out something you need, you should be getting something in return that you need, just as badly or more.

[Katrina]

Thanks Gunfixr. Actually I really don't see or know anyone but the family(our age) across the street. The rest of the neighborhood keeps to them selves, Not that we haven't tried but we're the OLD people on the block and sounding a bit harsh again most of the people in this neighbor hood are either DINKS or Yuppies with puppies and don't have time for the OLD people on the block

[ladyhk13]

That's not harsh at all. You are under no obligation to supply anybody besides yourself with anything, except in the case of children under the age of 18. Therefore, everyone outside that, such as other family, spouse, etc., you elect to help because of a vested interest, family, love relationship, etc.


I have to disagree with you on one point. You say that she is obligated to supply things for children under 18. I would say only if those children belong to her. Morally if the neighbors kid is going hungry of course it is your choice to feed them but just because they are a child it is not your responsibility to care for them if their parents did not prepare. It sounds harsh but a 16 y/o boy would be on his own if he showed up at our door looking for food...I know BWRR way too well. The kid would have to have some skill in return for sure.

[eagle326]

a 16 y/o boy would be on his own if he showed up at our door looking for food...I know BWRR way too well. The kid would have to have some skill in return for sure.[/QUOTE]

You are right on in my opinion Lady HK13. I view everything as to how I was raised and not raised. Meaning learning from my elders to figuring out how to do or not do by what I observed my elders doing. Back in the ancient times of the things being black or white ; ( that's to say ; right or wrong ) No in between's. I raised my brood this way and they theirs. I was in the Army by 17 years of age. I did fine on most things but still had to learn some on the fly. So be it right or wrong to some people that's the way I think and believe.

I take into account my life from then and compare it to today and make my decision based on that. So by my way of thinking ; If you are 16 and have no talents or skills that can be of help to the situation then you're but a drag on my supplies and safety. Now this is just my way of thinking and even today I'd expect someone to judge my worthiness to them by the same standards I expect.
Others may use a different set of rules and that's fine if it works for them. Now that's not to say I wouldn't take someone in if after talking ; watching them and got the sense that they would be a willing worker and student ; But that would probably be very very rare .

But then again I'm getting older and Damn well may forget my own rules and adopt the whole Damn area.

[Caveman Survival]

I am of the 'help as many as I can' mentality, but not with my stores. Like I am sure most of you are, I am a seed saver, and I have a supply set aside from my own seed library for those in my social circle that have scoffed at my emergency preparation regiment. I also have a small bank of seeds set aside for strangers in need, to be traded for labour (wood cutting, water gathering/filtering, etc), but when it comes to protein there isn't much I can do. My short to medium supply is too valuable, and long term will rely on the ability to forage my own. Again, in exchange for labour I can show those in need how to fend for themselves, but I'd suspect many would be looking for immediate satisfaction, and not willing to put in the time.

What it comes down to... Nothing already harvested or processes will be shared.... But knowledge and skill will be bartered

[2die4]

What are your plans for short term (1-3 months), medium term (3-6 months), and long term (6-24 months)?

What is your expected availability locally of fruits, veggies, and meats?

How do you expect prices to react of the times given?

Because of my current occupation which requires me to move locations every few years I have to rely almost solely on pre-packaged goods to make the move with me. Stuff that's easy to pack and doesn't take up too much room when the movers come. Once I'm in a temporary location I try to seek out bishop storehouses for canned items and other supplemental goods. Ideally I'd like to start canning but I think that won't happen until I finally settle in one area. One thing on my must buy list is a NON GMO seed vault. I may have to wait for growth but at least I know I would have some vegetables ready eventually.

Food prices are already becoming ridiculous. Walmart of all places has slowly been hiking the prices up on almost everything food wise. It will only get worse.

[Gunfixr]

I have to disagree with you on one point. You say that she is obligated to supply things for children under 18. I would say only if those children belong to her. Morally if the neighbors kid is going hungry of course it is your choice to feed them but just because they are a child it is not your responsibility to care for them if their parents did not prepare. It sounds harsh but a 16 y/o boy would be on his own if he showed up at our door looking for food...I know BWRR way too well. The kid would have to have some skill in return for sure.


Hadn't come back and looked at this thread.
Actually, we don't disagree.
I meant that she would have to supply things for her underage children, even though I didn't really clarify.
Sorry, that was a parental assumption on my part, wherein I assumed that it only applied to one's own children.
No, it is not one's responsibility to care for another's underage children, now or later.
Also, my typing really sucks, I have to edit constantly. My brain is running about a whole sentence (at least) ahead of what I'm typing. Sometimes words get missed.
Again, sorry to have misled.

I could easily see adults sending children to try and get supplies, just for the reason of "pulling at heartstrings".

[tystone48]

I have 2 yrs supply+ in dehydrated packed in foodsaver then in buckets w/ mylar with absorbers ..been doing this 5 yrs now.
Water 2 burkey system and the now how on how to distill water and build natural purifier sand, clay , gravel etc.. or How to dig next to a contamanated water source and do the same ..also steropens,
As to protein in my diet?
I make lots of jerkey a food dehydrator in my eyes is a mater of life or death. ..you cant carry a ton of cans..dehydrated food..add water only packed meals..of course Heirloom seeds a must with lots of squash because it will keep for months depending on the kind you raise..I do have small jars of canned meat..but I do not depend on livestock cause it will make you a target for sure, but I do have pack horses to ride carry or eat if need be, learning about other foods for protin is a must!! Sprouting seeds etc.. dehydrated food if packed right can last up to 15 yrs. And put in buckets # 2 s w/ mylar/ oxygen absorbers can be buried so if problems a rise they can be buried and later dug back up later in case you have to bug out with only your back pack and hope to return later..as far as helping..I do by teaching anyone who will listen.
I count how many day × my family ..The word is out their...if they dont listen..Im sorry my family will come first ! Thou I do fill bad about that? Watching my family starve because someone buys groceries by the day ...well Im sorry the word is out their thats all I can do, Skills a must so learn them ! But depending on meat? Nope!! There are to many other ways to get protin. ..better learn now !
As of now my family only eats meat 1 time a week unless I raise it or shoot it it dont get eating here.
I would trade a cow for a gun and not even blink!
All I can say is I dont know whats gonna happen?
So plan for many different things ..because no one knows what gonna happen or where the safe place will be? Get with a group you can trust or family ...lots of them. .cause you canot do alone.
I have members in my family I love dearly and have been warning for years to get ready. I Will help them ..But I wont die or watch my sons die because they are lazy or dont beleive or dont really care..it sounds cold hearted and Im sorry ...
All I will do is pray for them..That is all I can do...

[tystone48]

P.s bartering tools is a must ! From small bottles of shampoo to coffee.
Silver in small nuggets a must ..But could be worthless ? But who knows? Learn how to use a snare and buy some traps ..even a large rat trap will get you something ..you might not like it but if hungry it will look like a steak..
All my packs carrie sprouts and seeds.
Never put all your goods in 1 basket ..Water, seeds, sprouts, fishing string and cotton for fire starting will keep you alive awhile... dont forget first aid and one thing to look into is a rocket stove...they give off very little smoke,
Dont be an Indian..lol
You will draw to much attention !!
Also 200 miles from the coast
600 ft above sea level..
If you live in the northeast.
If you live in the west?
I will pray for you cause yellow stone is rocking.
Look to the geographic maps we have nook plants everywhere. ..so dont forget the Iodine. GMasks...etc

[Caveman Survival]

dont forget first aid and one thing to look into is a rocket stove...they give off very little smoke,
Dont be an Indian..lol
You will draw to much attention !!


If you were trying to say the First Nations made bad fires you need to do some research lol. It was whitey's smoke filled bonfires that allowed my brethren to spot 'em miles away... And count some coup because of it.

[tystone48]

No Sir !! Becsuse I am Cherokee ? I also live in Cowan, Tn ...on the Trail of Tears.. no punt intended
Just most the time sir..Im am talking to whitey ...lol

[tystone48]

Btw ... Nice to meet you...my trible name is two stones... : )

[Katrina]

Gee didn't mean to start a ruckus. knew what you meant, though, will have 6to 8 little ones in the family along with the adults to prep for.

[Gunfixr]

I was gonna say, if a Native American fire had smoke, it's because he wanted it to.

I am also part Cherokee.