Ukrane - Russia Situation

[The Stig]

I know I've been woefully behind in reporting on this situation:


Original story HERE (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/29/ukraine-pm-warns-possibility-further-russian-aggression/) at Foxnews -


Ukraine PM warns of possibility of further Russian aggression
Published March 29, 2014
FoxNews.com

Russia has said it has no intention of invading eastern Ukraine, but a top politician from Kiev told Fox News Saturday that there is "still a huge possibility that Russia could invade and seize Ukrainian territory."

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk voiced his concern as Russia's military takes positions on the country's border. Yarsenyuk, however, expressed some optimism for a diplomatic solution after an hour-long phone call Friday between President Obama and President Vladimir Putin.

"Diplomacy is always the best way forward," he said.

Yatsenyuk's concern for further Russian aggression is shared by many in the West.

U.S. Defense officials told Fox News the numbers of troops at Ukraine's border far exceeds the amount needed for a training exercise. And the fact that there is no real evidence any large-scale exercises have occurred, and that none of the troops have returned to their bases, is also concerning to U.S. observers.

Andriy Parubiy, Ukraine's top security official, estimates that Russia has 88,000 troops on the border. It is believed that an additional 50,000 troops may have flooded the region in the last few days. One Russian official dismissed the claims about a troop buildup, saying Western officials should "take a pain reliever."

The White House issued a press release the said Putin phoned Obama, who was travelling in Saudi Arabia, to discuss the situation that has put both countries on precarious footing. The invasion of Crimea is popular in Russia, but the country faces isolation from the West over its perceived aggression.

Obama urged Putin to avoid further military provocations in Ukraine, and to pull back the troops that Russia has on the Ukraine border, the statement said. Obama said Ukraine's government is pursuing de-escalation despite Russia's incursion into Crimea.

However the Russian government's account of the call has a different take, with the Kremlin asserting Putin led the conservation. It states Putin told Obama the international community needs to work together to stabilize the Ukraine situation.

The Kremlin release also says Putin drew Obama's attention to the "continued rampage of extremists" in Ukraine, saying they are intimidating citizens, law enforcement and the government.

Deep divisions between Ukraine's Russian-speaking eastern regions, where many favor close ties with Moscow, and the Ukrainian-speaking west, where most want to integrate into Europe, continue to fuel tensions.

The Crimean Peninsula, where ethnic Russians are a majority, voted this month to secede from Ukraine before Russia formally annexed it, a move that Western countries have denounced as illegitimate. Talk percolates of similar votes in other Ukrainian regions with large Russian populations, although none has been scheduled.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Friday that Putin had assured him he had no intention of making another military move into Ukraine.

That was echoed by Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, who said Putin made clear in a March 18 statement that there was not going to be any new Russian move into Ukraine.

While Putin has said Russia doesn't want a division of Ukraine, he also sought to cast it as an artificial state created by the Communists that includes historic Russian regions -- controversial statements that raise doubts about the Kremlin's intentions.

To tamp down those fears, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Friday that Moscow allowed observation flights over the border by Ukrainian, U.S., German and other Western officials. It said if any major troop concentrations had been spotted, the West wouldn't have been shy to speak about it.

Russia also kept pushing its long-held contention that ethnic minorities in Ukraine are living in fear of the new interim authorities. The Foreign Ministry said not just ethnic Russians, but ethnic Germans, Hungarians and Czechs in Ukraine also are feeling in peril.

"They are unsettled by the unstable political situation in the country and are seriously afraid for their lives," the statement said, without citing specific incidents.

Fox News' Greg Palkot and The Associated Press contributed to this report

[The Stig]

Original story HERE (http://news.sky.com/story/1233367/ukraine-crimea-bases-under-russian-control) at Skynews




Ukraine: Crimea Bases Under Russian Control

Barack Obama urges Russia to pull back from Ukraine's border as Moscow confirms all forces controlled by Kiev have left Crimea.
11:55am UK, Friday 28 March 2014

Russia has announced all military bases in Crimea are under its control and Ukrainian troops have left the region.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu added the country's president, Vladimir Putin, would hand over the military vessels and airplanes of Ukrainian forces that have changed sides and joined Moscow.

The region voted overwhelmingly to join Russia in a hastily-arranged referendum earlier this month.

Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama has urged Russia to pull its forces back from Ukraine's border amid the biggest crisis in relations between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War.

"You've seen a range of troops massing along that border under the guise of military exercises. But these are not what Russia would normally be doing," he told US television network CBS.

"You would have thought that after a couple of decades that there'd be an awareness on the part of any Russian leader that the path forward is not to revert back to the kinds of practices that you know, were so prevalent during the Cold War."

A senior Russian security official has been quoted as telling Mr Putin Moscow faces growing threats from the US and its allies.

"There has been a sharp increase in external threats to the state. The lawful desire of the peoples of Crimea and eastern Ukrainian regions is causing hysteria in the United States and its allies," Alexander Malevany, was quoted as saying.

The deputy head of the Federal Security Service added Russia was taking "offensive counter-intelligence and intelligence measures" to blunt Western efforts to "weaken Russian influence in a region that is of vital importance".

Russia was accused of invading Crimea in the aftermath of the removal of President Viktor Yanukovych, but Mr Putin called the soldiers who took over Ukrainian bases there "self-defence forces".

However, on Friday the Russian leader said the action in Crimea had showed the new capacities of the Russian army.

"The recent events in Crimea were a serious test," he said at a televised military ceremony.

"They demonstrated the new capacities of our armed forces in terms of quality and the high moral spirit of the personnel."

It is the first time Mr Putin has confirmed the direct involvement of the Russian army in the seizure.

He went on to thank the "commanders and servicemen of the Black Sea Fleet and other units deployed in Crimea for their restraint and personal courage".

On Friday, Mr Yanukovych said every region of Ukraine should hold a vote to decide whether to break away like Crimea.

He said he would not recognise a presidential election planned for May 25 and called instead for nationwide referendums.

"As president who is with you in thought and soul, I ask every single sensible citizen of Ukraine not to let yourselves be used by the imposters.

"Demand a referendum on determining the status of every region in Ukraine," he added in a statement quoted by Russia's Itar-Tass news agency.

Mr Yanukovych faced months of mass protests over his decision to spurn a European Union trade deal in favour of closer ties with Moscow.

[The Stig]

Original story HERE (http://www.dw.de/baltic-states-seek-nato-boots-on-the-ground/a-17528935) at Deutch Welle


Baltic States seek NATO boots on the ground

In the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the Baltic States are engaged in intense talks with NATO to step up security in the region. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia welcome plans for more NATO troops.
Lithuanian soldier on NATO manuvers.

Russia's annexation of Crimea has prompted a radical shake-up of how the Baltic States are thinking about their defense needs. Events in Ukraine are bringing back memories of the 50-year-long Soviet Union occupation of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, and it's making some feel nervous.

"Well, I feel strange because you never know what will happen. There is sort of a feeling of security because we're in the EU and NATO," said Sandra Gudrite, a 25-year-old woman from Salaspils. "So nothing really should happen, but anyway, you don't really know what Putin could come up with next."

Gudrite expresses the fears of many. It would seem the countries' governments and military leaders take these fears seriously too because they are in the midst of intensive talks with their allies in NATO to strengthen security across the whole Baltic region.

"We will now take immediate steps to increase the intensity of NATO drills here. We want to have a larger presence of NATO's forces as soon as we can," said Janis Sarts, state secretary of the ministry of defense in Latvia.

Sarts says that Russia has been busy investing in its military capabilities over recent years.

Russia's periphery: Who's next?:Putin# has made evident his interest in the Baltic States too by establishing an airbase for helicopters in Ostrov, Pskov Oblast near the borders of Latvia and Estonia. The airbase is intended for such military helicopters as Ka-52, Mi-34, Mi-28 and others.

"That is a recent development," Sarts explained to DW. "[and it] of course, raises the question of why there is a need for such a base, especially given its geographic location. The base has an offensive capability [too]," he clarifies.

Boots on the ground

There were 37 registered cases last year of NATO fighter jets, which patrol the airspace above the Baltic States, intercepting Russian military planes flying near the Latvian borders.

Last year there were 37 cases of NATO jets intercepting Russian planes flying near Baltic borders.

"I welcome the decisions of the US, the UK and also France to send additional planes to support air policing in the Baltic skies," said Urmas Reinsalu, the Estonian Minister of Defense. "For us it is a very important issue that NATO is capable of acting." He goes on to explain that even when ISAF (the NATO-led security mission in Afghanistan) has ended, the Baltics need to know that NATO will uphold its collective self-defense commitments. Reinsalu adds that, in his opinion, what would act as a strong deterrent would be a permanent NATO presence right across the Baltic region.

"I would welcome, particularly American troops," he stated, adding that they, above all, would be essential for providing additional security in the region. "If their permanent presence is not possible, then rotating army units would be good [instead]."

Estonia is the only country in the Baltic States which already spends two percent of its GDP on defense -the minimum amount each NATO country is expected to invest in its military. Latvia now spends 0.9 percent of its GDP and plans to gradually achieve the two percent threshold by 2020. Lithuania's current commitments are 0.8 percent of GDP in Lithuania.

"The current plan is that we will have an increase of 0.1 as a percentage of GDP next year," says Vaidotas Urbelis, Political Director of the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defense. "We will continue with this increase, proportionate to supply, going up 0.1 per cent of GDP every year at least until we reach our two per cent benchmark."

A 'love-hate' relationship with Russia

While Latvian politicians might pledge to spend more on defense, the country's economy is hugely dependent on Russia. That's why the country is reluctant to annoy its neighbor too much.

There is slight unease on the streets of Riga at what Putin could do next.

"Estonians and Lithuanians are in a better position than Latvians," says Zaneta Ozolioa, professor of politics at the University of Latvia. "We have been repeating the mantra in our economy that Russia is a big market and that we have to cooperate with Russia."

"The fact is [though] that we have actually shot ourselves in the foot," adds Ozolioa. "It was just a myth that Russia and the Central Asian countries are predictable states."

There's another factor too, which puts Latvia in a riskier position than Estonia and Lithuania. Latvia has a Russian speaking minority of around 550 thousand - the largest in the Baltic States. And it would provide a good pretext for Putin to bring in his army should he feel the need to "protect" the Russian speakers there.

No ethnic tensions?

Despite the fears, Latvians and Russians are generally on good terms. But it was only back in 2012 when the last lot of tensions arose between the two. That was because of a referendum held to decide if Russian should be considered as a second official language in Latvia. When the referendum eventually failed, the tensions faded.

The recent Soviet past may be gone but not forgotten. Freedom is important to the Baltics.

"Latvians are simply more willing to give in and they usually switch to Russian," explained Gudrite to DW. She thinks that there shouldn't be any objections from the Russians about their life in Latvia.

"They have all the rights and freedoms. They are mostly served in Russian and there shouldn't be any problems at all with them living here."

One ethnic Russian, Aleksandrs Sanatovs, a 49 year old family man would seem to bear out her analysis. He smilingly spoke to DW, explaining, "you know, I think that people are quite nervous at the moment, but there's no reason for it," He has lived happily in Riga for many years.

"The situation [between Russia and Latvia] is normal and I think that nothing will happen," says Sanatovs and adds that there's actually no need to think about it at all.

But despite his positivity, the governments of the Baltic States will continue to keep a nervous eye on their Russian neighbor. Most said they would continue to be open to NATO moves to shore up their defenses rather than risk leaving windows of opportunity for a situation like Crimea to unfold on their territory in the future. For the moment, the promise of more "boots on the ground" would appear to be a reassuring prospect to some of NATO's newest members.

[Stg1swret]

Our marvelous foreign policy at work, hey, lets draw down the military while we are at it.