Hurricane Irene

[RedJohn]

Hurricane Irene : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_5day.html)

Expect a Category ONE Hurricane, we are currently in the center of the forecast cone.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_5day.gif

You have several days to make your preparations, but you should be already prepared.

[RedJohn]

Hurricane irene discussion number 8
nws national hurricane center miami fl al092011
1100 am ast mon aug 22 2011

data from a reconnaissance plane...radar and satellite imagery
indicate that irene has continued to gradually become better
organized. However the winds winds have not increased significantly
and the minimum central pressure was around 988 mb in the last
center dropsonde. The initial intensity has been increased to 70
knots in this advisory. Since the core of the hurricane is not
forecast to move directly over the high terrain of hispaniola...and
the oceanic and atmospheric conditions are quite favorable... The
official forecast calls for intensification...and makes irene a
category 3 hurricane as it moves across the central bahamas. This
is consistent with most of the dynamical guidance and in
fact...even global models forecast a significant drop in the
central pressure over the next two or three days. Irene is becoming
a large cyclone...and based on buoy observations the tropical storm
force winds extend 160 n mi to the northeast of the center.

Radar and reconnaissance fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at about 12 knots. Irene
is currently located south of a narrow subtropical ridge which is
forcing the cyclone on a west-northwest track. However...most of
the global models show the gradual development a large upper trough
along the united states east coast. This pattern will induce a more
northwestward and then northward track through the forecast period
with a decrease in forward speed. Based on the latest guidance...
The official track forecast has been shifted to the east...but
still remains slightly west of the model consensus. Although it is
too early to be certain...the current guidance lessens the threat
to south florida.

[bacpacker]

Thanks for the update RJ. bad times coming on the east coast.

[piranha2]

Looks like we, here on the Florida east coast may have dodged a bullet. You folks up north get prepared.

[RedJohn]

Yes, it looks like it. The picture on the first post got updated and Florida is almost spared. The Carolinas are going to get the full blast.

[piranha2]

Possible cat 3 when it makes landfall. Hope she continues to track further east.

[bacpacker]

As more up dates come out, it looks more and more like the outer banks of NC are gonna get hammered. My favorite place to go to the beach, but would'nt want to be ther this weekendv.