Markets, Distribution, and Exchange After Societal Cataclysm

[bacpacker]

I found a link to a report from back in 1989 that was put together for FEMA. I haven't read much of it yet, but what I have, while rather dry, does give a multi level insite into various scenarios. I would be interested in a discussion if anyone has time to read much of this. Particularly into how this has changed in the years since then.

Here is the link.

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a216447.pdf

[jamesneuen]

Give me the weekend, it's looks really dry.

[Stg1swret]

While I haven't read the report, I will give you some radom thoughts on the issue. Any exchange or markets after a collapse will start on a local level, most likely barter at first. As things get more organized some forms of currency medium will be instituted. Certain forms and denominations of currency will become the standard. Value and price for items will depend on the availability of an item. Labor will be priced depending on the need of said skill. Just my 2 cents.

[bacpacker]

What little I've read is very dry. And Stg, your statement goes along to some degree with the thoughts expressed.

[realist]

Ill start reading it tonight although it might be a short night if it is that dry. If nothing else from a historical perspective I am interested in what they have to say. I wonder when they started writing this just how long it would take the material to become outdated.

[realist]

Well I have read part of this and it continues. The one thing that slows me down is their references. I find I want to read them too. One of the common themes I am reading is just what it played out in a lot of the different books out there in the Apocalyptic genre. The one thing which has really hit home is the emphasis on property rights and how important it is to have copies of all your deeds. Not just copies but notarized copies. Consider going through and having your birth certificates also notarized too.

[Gunfixr]

Haven't read it, but I have always thought that at first, people would be trying to cling to the collapsed ways, and precious metals would be used as a monetary substitute.
Later, if things had not righted themselves, and the realization that you cannot eat, stay warm with, or defend yourself with precious metals, it would shift to straight barter. Something they want for something you want, perhaps services, or a combination thereof.

[realist]

You are right that is one thing they say it is anticipated, people will cling to their old ways and will try to replicate them. When you think about it it happens all the time. People move from one state to another because they want a better life. When they find it is not like where they lived they try to change it making it more like they had in the past. For the most part screwing up a good thing.

[bacpacker]

Not sure about how things will go right away. I think most folks will try to use what cash they have on hand for as long as they can, or until they run out. Shouldn't take more than a week. I seriously doubt most folks have any PM's. My bet is no more than 10% of folks and probably no more than half of those have more than $100 or so.
For barter, how many sheeple is gonna have much of anything useful to trade. Food, seeds, tools, doubtful. At best you might be able to get some labor from them but then you take a chance on them figuring out that you have stuff to live on and will be back to try and liberate it.

[Domeguy]

I'm about 1/2 way through, but keep falling asleep reading it. But so far, to me it seems to be about common sense things. Or maybe as a prepper, I've already thought about this kind of situation, where the steeple out there have not.

[Kesephist]

bacpacker:"Not sure about how things will go right away. I think most folks will try to use what cash they have on hand for as long as they can, or until they run out. Shouldn't take more than a week. I seriously doubt most folks have any PM's. My bet is no more than 10% of folks and probably no more than half of those have more than $100 or so."

Need to shift your decimal over a place to the left, regarding your estimate on PM holders.

MAYBE, just MAYBE 10% of PREPPERS hold PMs. This community can be just as tunnel-visioned in some areas as anyone else.

bacpacker:"For barter, how many sheeple is gonna have much of anything useful to trade. Food, seeds, tools, doubtful. At best you might be able to get some labor from them but then you take a chance on them figuring out that you have stuff to live on and will be back to try and liberate it."

The term is 'steal'.


A lot of the SHTF scenarios have massive destruction and very few survivors. Trade will be a minimal concern for a very long time. My plans are for periods far less wholly destructive, and if that makes me out to be a Pollyanna, so be it.

Of the four cases I outlined elsewhere in this forum of SHTF, I believe that HAM ROD is most likely. From inauguration to when it settles in for however long it decrees itself to be President-for-Life or whatever, will be the LAST period of time left to get what ever preps, including plans for matters of trade, hammered out. Both the OUTLAW and TICKERTAPE cases will be much faster, much more unpredictable, and a lot more immediately destructive. Any trade or money or other fiscal planning best be in place NOW for them, and as in all good plans, simpler the better.