Forseeable forcast...AKA SHTF.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

OK, if we go way back into the SHTF archives some of you might recall I posted a link or two relating to this storm tracking stuff. I use the tools I used as a "squid" in my Navy days that aided us as a ship when transiting the world's oceans. NOAA is a useful site if you DIG INTO IT! It will give you wave heights, sea temps, water vapor loops high and low pressure regions and ALL THE SHIT THE NEWS DOES NOT GIVE THE PUBLIC! So they can make all the decisions FOR YOU, make you panic, run away, buy shit, the usual. Now having said this I am asking you PLEASE (note the date, I said please) look at the links I am giving and study the movements of the high (dark zones)and low pressure bands and how everything reacts to them. You will soon learn how to tell the weather channel to "fuck off" or you might know when to "over all hatch hoods and gun covers."

1. If a high pressure retreats a low will move in.
2. A high pressure is "normally" moved with a jet stream. You'll see it.
3. Highs are usually stronger than lows.
4. Never transit to the south of a hurricane when at sea, you will get sucked in. Remember the sunken container ship off the Bahamas last year?
5. Always transit to the North so you will get blown out (note the circulation pattern......)

PLease feel free to ask questions. I currently feel that Irma is going to peter out with this high pressure band pushing so hard coming in from the north west the last few days. It Knocked it down into Cuba to where it lost steam contradicting yesterday's prediction of "OH, it's going to be a CAT 5! when it hits Florida!" Fucked that one up.....

OK, having said all this we have family in Titusville, Orlando, Panama City, and friends in Tampa. Only Tampa and Titusville has left the state.
OH hey, we still have some members who are down there too! SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO what's up with them?
How about checking in if you can and have time just so we know you are GTG????????

OK here are two links, One is more east coast US the other is more atlantic for the oncoming storms that are coming across. Tell me your thoughts, my current is "wind and rain" and some power outages due to downed power lines and what nots. The fuckin media is killing me but I won't get into that.............I could see the major concern in the beginning but I have a tendency not to PANIC. I like to do the research myself before I trust the media. I make my moves based on my own experiences. My family learned to trust my instincts after Hurricane Brett in 99, they wanted to leave and I said NO, it's going to dogleg to the west. We boarded up, and stayed put and people left and they stuck on the highway in the middle of the storm. (Texas DPS learned a valuable lesson, open all lanes so EVERYONE can get out safely, by the way it worked this time with Harvey)So What happened in 99? It doglegged west and hit south of Corpus and all was well in the kingdom. I used the tools I was given, so far they still work. I think Florida might be just fine............except getting back into place. HEY, real economy booster though huh?


By the way, my daughter's life and my wife's family depends on it, and then again, you can't fix stupid.

WE'll talk about the other Nations vulnerabilities we have going on right now later..................I have a list.:mad:

[Stg1swret]

I concur. This storm is not what it is hyped to be. Watch the trailer that they aren't talking about good oldJose. The west coast of Florida is going to get pummeled, Storm surge will kill Tampa Bay. Jose isn't going to follow the original track, and is going to play hell with recovery efforts. The weather channel makes it money on getting ratings, not giving you real weather during a real weather event, more hype, more ad revenue. The more dangerous they can make it look, the more they make for ads. BWRR and I have seen plenty of nasty weather at sea, and known the power a storm can present. It gets ugly, and if you don't pay attention, it gets deadly real quick.
I hate to say it, but most of you land lubbers just don't know weather or how to interpret a weather map or forecast. Please learn it is a life saver.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

You might have notice how the "categories" have changed up and down all day long. If you'll also notice the weather picture they give you on the TV stations shows this giant swirling blob of red. Look at the WATER vapor loop and tell me what you see. I just heard about a 16 FOOT storm surge now on the west coast of FL.......................uhhhh. I'm not buying that one, hey can anybody else come up with more adjectives? It's nuclear now in Miami! Give me a fuckin break people, by the way, anybody checked up on NKO, Iran, China, Isis, Skeletor (Nancy pelosi ) ain't hearing shit about the real threats while we're most vulnerable.

I just talked to my "Surf Punk" bud in Orlando a little bit ago, he's boarded up and ready to go. I told him, "beans, bullets and band-aids" the storm is one thing, the worst is yet to come.......people. They all left and guess who's ready and waiting to pillage the village? The good thing is Rick Scott authorized open carry for all in the state. The bad thing is, who's the guy carrying in your neighborhood?

Years ago we discussed Katrina, great memories for Stormy and me (sarcasm) the truth is people suck, and some of us don't. I've seen enough but when you come home and see it in your own country.......yeah, just makes you sick inside. Fuck'em. So I made sure I reminded our friends and family.

So where's TX now, it's coming it won't take long. Houston is big and so is TX....I hope I'm wrong.

[Stg1swret]

The news only reports their threat of the day as they see it. At least Russian collusion has gone away. The water vapor loop tells me this storm will rapidly lose strength. !6 foot storm surge is not an option maybe half of that if it stalls, but the steering currents say that is not even in the realm of possibilities. When this all falls apart, they will talk about the storm that could have been. Did a typhoon in the S. China sea in 72 wasn't pleasant, and hurricane at sea and two in port, also no fun. If you know how to read a weather gauge, you know what is coming. Being you and I had no place to hide at sea, we've been there and know what to expect. A big drop in pressure means a strong storm,get on the correct side of it and your fine, if you are on the wrong side you take a pounding. Ignore the warnings and indicators and you die. It is a simple equation.
As for the categories, I kind of laughed at the graphics, wind does less damage then moving water. A three foot wave will kill you faster then 120 mph wind will.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Here's a good shot of Jose, nice little spinner hooking up to the WNW around PR. If this one gets more fuel it could do some damage as well. If I were steamin I'd stay well south of PR and DR, do a little diving in Cayman Brac, cut through the islands and make my way home behind it.

[Stg1swret]

Jose is definitely coming, it is a question of probable track, and I don't see the steering currents for the big hook they are calling for. Ther is also another probable forming off Africa which if it develops is about 2 weeks behind Jose. Its getting busy in the Atlantic.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

The news only reports their threat of the day as they see it. At least Russian collusion has gone away. The water vapor loop tells me this storm will rapidly lose strength. !6 foot storm surge is not an option maybe half of that if it stalls, but the steering currents say that is not even in the realm of possibilities. When this all falls apart, they will talk about the storm that could have been. Did a typhoon in the S. China sea in 72 wasn't pleasant, and hurricane at sea and two in port, also no fun. If you know how to read a weather gauge, you know what is coming. Being you and I had no place to hide at sea, we've been there and know what to expect. A big drop in pressure means a strong storm,get on the correct side of it and your fine, if you are on the wrong side you take a pounding. Ignore the warnings and indicators and you die. It is a simple equation.
As for the categories, I kind of laughed at the graphics, wind does less damage then moving water. A three foot wave will kill you faster then 120 mph wind will.

Oh, STG1 is right on all counts, this can be some fun shit, as the smell of vomit drifts throughout the passageways. Only the saltiest sea dogs remain on watch, we pulled doubles and them some cause the rest are down below pukin and in their racks. You "tack" your course in order to ride the waves as best you can. Yup, you and I could swap some sea stories. If you ever feel the need to come to TN and vacation We will accommodate ya, Jack Daniels is right down the road and we have many forms of entertainment for us retired squids, he, he.

[Stg1swret]

Sounds like a plan Senior Chief. I always kept a hammock for sleeping in "heavy weather". it was better then trying to strap yourself into a rack. During the typhoon, we had a whole 62 watch standers for almost 3 days. Passageways were awash with regurgitated food. Those without their "sea legs", cleaned up their own mess when things quieted down.
Nothing like walking on the bulkheads when you had to. Never spilled a drop of coffee either. Kind of miss that sometimes. Sure it was a bit dangerous, but you learned to live with it, and carry on. #5 to 40 degrees rolls became a challenge to time, along with diving into and rising out of a trough. Going up and down ladders , if you timed it right were a one step process.

[bacpacker]

Thanks for the links and info guys. Time for some study.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Sounds like a plan Senior Chief. I always kept a hammock for sleeping in "heavy weather". it was better then trying to strap yourself into a rack. During the typhoon, we had a whole 62 watch standers for almost 3 days. Passageways were awash with regurgitated food. Those without their "sea legs", cleaned up their own mess when things quieted down.
Nothing like walking on the bulkheads when you had to. Never spilled a drop of coffee either. Kind of miss that sometimes. Sure it was a bit dangerous, but you learned to live with it, and carry on. #5 to 40 degrees rolls became a challenge to time, along with diving into and rising out of a trough. Going up and down ladders , if you timed it right were a one step process.

You know what really pissed me off? taking a shower in those heavy seas.... I hated bouncing my naked ass off of that nasty ass rain locker. Sometimes shower shoes don't have the grip and you get folded up on your ass.... you get the picture. The navy shower is about 2.5 foot square. Sometimes they're not the cleanest in these conditions especially when the plumbing is gurgling up from the drain, it ain't purdy. Fun times! You bring back fond memories brother! Like doing the kapok jump in the Bosn's locker! Or the guy that slips in the vomit in the p-way and does the electric slide, it's all over, can't regain footing, ship keeps rockin and rolling and you keep getting covered in vomit. :o

[Stg1swret]

Well, the idiots from the various news outlets are out in Irma trying to get their money shots. One of these"experts", is going to get hurt badly or killed at the rate they are going. They don't have enough sense to stay out of harms way. Then you have the foolhardy idiots that want to feel what the winds and surf are like.
I really love some of the stupid statements these forecasters make. This one however took the cake , "There is an extreme wind warning for Key West", its a CAT4 hurricane, what do you think the winds are going to be, light and breezy? Then there was the guy standing in 10" of running water out in the open, with his back to the wind trying to give a report. Can't see what is coming at you, and has no real footing should something happen. From the shot, noone is within 50 feet of him.

[Stg1swret]

This NOAA graphic shows the sea state created by Irma and Jose. To understand better the force of the pushed water, 1 cubic foot of water weighs 1 ton.

Now you know why we who served shipboard in the Navy, have a healthy respect for these storms.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/graphicast.php?basin=at#contents

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

I'm seeing a slight bend to the west on that high pressure wall up in the panhandle and GA area, this liable to cause this thing to move out to the gulf more and then up into the panhandle. Note the orange/bronze color in the high pressure how its hooking down around the bottom of the storm. Watch what it's doing and what effect it's having.

"NEVER IN HISTORY has a tropical storm warning been issued in Atlanta georgia!" OH MY GOSH! Just got the word from Shelly (Sheppard) Smith on Fox, "quick we need more adjectives break out the big book!"

Be advised I am not down playing any of this I have family and friends down there and I am damn concerned If I was still living there I would STILL be living there right now boarded up loaded and locked. Because I would be prepped as I am now. The last reminders I gave to "F&F" (friends and family) was don't forget to spray paint "You loot I shoot" on your plywood.

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Well it looks like my high pressure band as predicted knocked the wind out of it's sails. By forcing it back on land the warm waters of the gulf can't give it the steam it needed to be a CAT 4, no wait cat 5, no wait cat 4, uh cat 7!

Again I'm no expert I just watch what the pressure bands tell me. I'm just very thankful that the destruction will be minimal, F&F will be OK from that. Now comes the other part, can "they" be civil and come home to a "home", this is something I actually pray for.

I want America to be America again. Now let's go deal with the other shit overseas.

[Katrina]

BR
Just talked to DIL In GA(checking up on them) Big stuff not due in ATL till this evening but she says they have been stocking up and are ready. This mom has been blathering at them for last couple of weeks. At least they have a basement to hide in if needed

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Uuuuuh, basement? I hope they're on some sort of high ground? Good to hear that they are prepped and ready, "Beans, Bullets and Band-Aids" generator would be nice to, don't forget the big heavy chain and lock. Remember what happened with Izzy a couple of years ago. They tried to steal his after the big winter/ice storm, first the dog got ahold of him, and he gave the command to let him go as I recall leaving a blood trail through the field and woods, the local sheriff said "He'll show up" and he did, at the ER, he told the sheriff he wanted press charges against the "dog owner" case closed, off to jail. Generators are a call to thieves once they are fired up in times like these.

Funny us little wacko preppers don't seem so crazy in times like these, eh?

[Illini Warrior]

Uuuuuh, basement? I hope they're on some sort of high ground? Good to hear that they are prepped and ready, "Beans, Bullets and Band-Aids" generator would be nice to, don't forget the big heavy chain and lock. Remember what happened with Izzy a couple of years ago. They tried to steal his after the big winter/ice storm, first the dog got ahold of him, and he gave the command to let him go as I recall leaving a blood trail through the field and woods, the local sheriff said "He'll show up" and he did, at the ER, he told the sheriff he wanted press charges against the "dog owner" case closed, off to jail. Generators are a call to thieves once they are fired up in times like these.

Funny us little wacko preppers don't seem so crazy in times like these, eh?


finishing up my new muffler install and exhaust system for running my generator inside my garage - should run virtually silent - exhaust is going thru a full sized auto muffler and then exiting out the roof 15 feet vertical ....

[Stg1swret]

I see the vermin are out and about, trying to take what they can from stores and homes. 28 arrested in Broward County alone. We 'll see how long that lasts after the first one gets shot. Florida is a defend your ground state.I think we will see the "You loot, we shoot" signs soon.
It is a shame it has to come to that, but mutts will be mutts.

[Katrina]

Yes Son1's house is on a hill, most of basement is below the hill. No genny yet but will be "talking" at them soon. They have 2 grills, charcoal and propane plus last time power went out for a time their gas stove still worked. As for FL, Uncle and cousin carry and aren't afraid to use. I believe they shouldn't have a problem ;)

[Domeguy]

You know what really pissed me off? taking a shower in those heavy seas.... I hated bouncing my naked ass off of that nasty ass rain locker. Sometimes shower shoes don't have the grip and you get folded up on your ass.... you get the picture. The navy shower is about 2.5 foot square. Sometimes they're not the cleanest in these conditions especially when the plumbing is gurgling up from the drain, it ain't purdy. Fun times! You bring back fond memories brother! Like doing the kapok jump in the Bosn's locker! Or the guy that slips in the vomit in the p-way and does the electric slide, it's all over, can't regain footing, ship keeps rockin and rolling and you keep getting covered in vomit. :o

You make it all sound so magical, so fun. When can I sign up?

[Brownwater Riverrat 13]

Yes Son1's house is on a hill, most of basement is below the hill. No genny yet but will be "talking" at them soon. They have 2 grills, charcoal and propane plus last time power went out for a time their gas stove still worked. As for FL, Uncle and cousin carry and aren't afraid to use. I believe they shouldn't have a problem ;)

I take it everyone is GTG?

- - - Updated - - -


You make it all sound so magical, so fun. When can I sign up?

As for this statement, DG, I would do it all over again as I've said many times before. Never regretted a single day no matter how shitty they were, good days and bad days. It's all worth it to me, life is full of memories and experiences, it's what YOU make of them. You my friend are about to make some more new ones!

By the way, you're still my "wing nut" uh I mean Wing man yeah that's it.:confused: